08. Consequences

What Are the Consequences of Global Warming?

2014-12-19. Less tasty shrimp, thanks to climate change.  By Puneet Kollipara, Science.

2014-12-14. Waters Warm, and Cod Catch Ebbs in Maine. By Michael Wines and Jess Bidgood, The New York Times.

2014-12-04. Antarctic ice shelf being eaten away by sea. By Carolyn Gramling, Science.

2014-11-22. Climate Change Threatens to Strip the Identity of Glacier National Park. By Michael Wines, The New York Times. 

2014-10-23. Climate Change Indicators in the United States.  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

2014-10-16. U.S. Sees Increase in Days with Multiple Tornadoes. By Meagan Phelan, AAAS.

2014-10-10. What's going on with Antarctic sea ice?  Excerpt: ...The National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) announced this week that the sea ice surrounding Antarctica reached its maximum extent ...also set a record for the highest extent of sea ice around the continent since satellite measurements began in the late 1970s. ...uptick in Antarctic sea ice is still only a fraction (about a third) of the rapid loss of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean. ...This enigma has puzzled scientists, and it’s an active area of research; ...while the overall climate is warming, it’s a complicated system: The warming climate is also changing weather patterns. Multiple studies have been looking into how these changes might affect sea ice extent: for example, changes in prevailing wind patterns or in the magnitude of ocean waves, both of which can herd the ice toward or away from the coast.... http://news.sciencemag.org/climate/2014/10/whats-going-antarctic-sea-ice. By Carolyn Gramling, Science AAAS.

2014-10-01. 35,000 walrus come ashore in northwest Alaska. Excerpts: ANCHORAGE, Alaska (AP) — Pacific walrus that can't find sea ice for resting in Arctic waters are coming ashore in record numbers on a beach in northwest Alaska. An estimated 35,000 walrus were photographed Saturday about 5 miles north of Point Lay, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. ...The enormous gathering was spotted during NOAA's annual arctic marine mammal aerial survey, spokeswoman Julie Speegle said by email. ...The gathering of walrus on shore is a phenomenon that has accompanied the loss of summer sea ice as the climate has warmed. ...Unlike seals, walrus cannot swim indefinitely and must rest. They use their tusks to "haul out," or pull themselves onto ice or rocks. ..."It's another remarkable sign of the dramatic environmental conditions changing as the result of sea ice loss," said Margaret Williams, managing director of the group's Arctic program, by phone from Washington, D.C. "The walruses are telling us what the polar bears have told us and what many indigenous people have told us in the high Arctic, and that is that the Arctic environment is changing extremely rapidly and it is time for the rest of the world to take notice and also to take action to address the root causes of climate change." This summer, the sea ice's annual low point was the sixth smallest since satellite monitoring began in 1979.... http://www.sfgate.com/news/science/article/35-000-walrus-come-ashore-in-northwest-Alaska-5791705.php. By Dan Joling, Associated Press.

2014-09-29. Scientists Trace Extreme Heat in Australia to Climate Change. Excerpt: The savage heat waves that struck Australia last year were almost certainly a direct consequence of greenhouse gases released by human activity, researchers said Monday. It is perhaps the most definitive statement climate scientists have made tying a specific weather event to global warming. Five groups of researchers, using distinct methods, analyzed the heat that baked Australia for much of 2013 and continued into 2014, briefly shutting down the Australian Open tennis tournament in January when the temperature climbed to 111 degrees Fahrenheit...... http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/30/science/earth/human-related-climate-change-led-to-extreme-heat-scientists-say.html. By Justin Gillis, The New York Times.

2014-09-22. Testing Future Conditions for the Food Chain. Excerpt: ...The Illinois researchers are trying to move past just documenting the potential trouble, though. The bigger question is: What can be done to make crops more resilient? That has lately become an urgent topic. For decades, many climate experts were relatively sanguine on the issue, thinking that warming in frigid northern countries would benefit crops, helping to offset likely production losses in the tropics. Moreover, some research suggested potentially huge crop gains from a sort of counterintuitive ace in the hole: the very increase in carbon dioxide that is causing the planet to warm. ...The tests so far have confirmed the beneficial “CO2 fertilization effect,” as it is known. But in field conditions, the boon to the crops was not as great as in earlier greenhouse experiments, and probably not enough to offset the heat and other stresses of a warmer planet. “It’s there, it’s real, but the question is, how much is it going to help?” Dr. Leakey said.... http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/23/science/testing-future-conditions-for-the-food-chain.html. By Justin Gillis, The New York Times. Also, 2014 Sept 23 New York Times had a flurry of climate change related articles. See

2014-09-08. Climate Change Will Disrupt Half of North America’s Bird Species, Study Says. Excerpt: The Baltimore oriole will probably no longer live in Maryland, the common loon might leave Minnesota, and the trumpeter swan could be entirely gone. Those are some of the grim prospects outlined in a report released on Monday by the National Audubon Society, which found that climate change is likely to so alter the bird population of North America that about half of the approximately 650 species will be driven to smaller spaces or forced to find new places to live, feed and breed over the next 65 years. If they do not — and for several dozen it will be very difficult — they could become extinct. The four Audubon Society scientists who wrote the report projected in it that 21.4 percent of existing bird species studied will lose “more than half of the current climactic range by 2050 without the potential to make up losses by moving to other areas.” An additional 32 percent will be in the same predicament by 2080, they said. Among the most threatened species are the three-toed woodpecker, the northern hawk owl, the northern gannet, Baird’s sparrow, the rufous hummingbird and the trumpeter swan, the report said. They are among the 30 species that, by 2050, will no longer be able to live and breed in more than 90 percent of their current territory. ...“Common sense will tell you that with these kinds of findings, it’s hard to believe we won’t lose some species to extinction,” said David Yarnold, the president of the National Audubon Society. “How many? We honestly don’t know. We don’t know which ones are going to prove heroically resilient.” ...Drought in Southern California is blamed for a sharp drop in breeding among California raptors, perhaps because a lack of water is killing the insects and small rodents they feed on.... http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/09/us/climate-change-will-disrupt-half-of-north-americas-bird-species-study-says.html. By Felicity Barringer, The New York Times.

2014-08-24. What's Killing the Bay Area's Oysters? Excerpt: Signifiers of the good life, local bivalves may be harbingers of another phenomenon: species extinction. ...roughly 7 million oysters ... the five oyster farms on Tomales Bay sell each year to local restaurants and bars. ...Though Hog Island’s inventory had restabilized by 2013, ...We just couldn’t supply the product. It was painful—and still is because we’re not over it. The culprit? Ocean acidification—climate change’s caustic cousin—caused by rising carbon dioxide emissions. ...In 2005, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration began reporting that hatcheries throughout the West Coast were seeing steep declines in production, putting the $84 million industry in jeopardy. Hatchery staff and scientists scrambled to pinpoint the cause, .... It wasn’t until a year later that [Alan] Barton [or Whiskey Creek shellfish hatchery in Tillamook, Oregon] solved the mystery that had stumped scientists. On an ordinary summer day that was marred by a particularly bad die-off, he decided to test the pH levels in the tanks. ...Lo and behold, the pH level of the water was drastically lower (read: more corrosive) than usual. ...because the acidification is exacerbated by carbon dioxide emissions, every year it gets a little worse. ...These days, we release roughly 70 million tons per day—and the oceans soak up nearly a third of that. The result? On average, the sea is 30 percent more acidic than it was 200 years ago. And in the last decade, it began passing the point where young oysters can survive. It’s not necessarily the acidity that causes problems for the oysters, but rather the concomitant lack of carbonate ions in the water. Shellfish use these free-floating ions to build their shells. When seawater absorbs carbon dioxide, the number of carbonate ions available for the shellfish is reduced. “A baby oyster is trying to eat, grow, move around, and make a shell. So if it spends more energy trying to make a shell, then something else in that equation is going to suffer,” says Tessa Hill, a scientist with UC Davis who studies the impacts of rising carbon dioxide levels on native shellfish. “I say it’s like balancing your checkbook—you can’t spend a lot of energy on one thing without cutting back in some other category.” http://modernluxury.com/san-francisco/story/whats-killing-the-bay-areas-oysters. By Jacoba Charles, San Francisco Magazine.

2014-05-19. The Big Melt Accelerates. Excerpt: Centuries from now, a large swath of the West Antarctic ice sheet is likely to be gone, its hundreds of trillions of tons of ice melted, causing a four-foot rise in already swollen seas. Scientists reported last week that the scenario may be inevitable, with new research concluding that some giant glaciers had passed the point of no return, possibly setting off a chain reaction that could doom the rest of the ice sheet. For many, the research signaled that changes in the earth’s climate have already reached a tipping point, even if global warming halted immediately. ...A full melt would cause sea level to rise 215 feet. During recent ice ages, glaciers expanded from the poles and covered nearly a third of the continents. And in the distant past there were episodes known as Snowball Earth, when the entire planet froze over. At the other extreme, a warm period near the end of the age of dinosaurs may have left the earth ice-free. Today the amount of ice is modest — 10 percent of land areas, nearly all of that in Greenland and Antarctica. ...In an analysis last year of the satellite and ground measurements, a team of scientists led by Alex S. Gardner, an earth scientist at Clark University in Worcester, Mass., who is moving to NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, concluded that, on average, glaciers in all regions were withering away, dumping 260 billion metric tons of water into the ocean every year. ...Greenland, with 10 percent of the world’s ice, has enough to raise sea level by 23 feet. “I still think Greenland is the most important thing to watch for this century,” Dr. Scambos said. ...Researchers from Dartmouth found that another side effect from global warming, forest fires, made the melting even worse. Soot from fires elsewhere in the world landed on Greenland snow, making it darker, causing it to absorb more heat.... http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/20/science/the-melting-isnt-glacial.html - By Kenneth Chang, The New York Times.

2014-05-19. Hidden Greenland Canyons Mean More Sea Level Rise. Excerpt: Scientists at NASA and the University of California, Irvine (UCI), have found that canyons under Greenland's ocean-feeding glaciers are deeper and longer than previously thought, increasing the amount of Greenland's estimated contribution to future sea level rise. ...The results were published Sunday in the journal Nature Geoscience.  ...An animation of the newly mapped bed topography is available at: http://youtu.be/g_6a7SloMsY.... http://www.nasa.gov/press/2014/may/hidden-greenland-canyons-mean-more-sea-level-rise/#.U3rZgy9GLhw - NASA RELEASE 14-141. See also Scientific American article, Deep Valleys Under Greenland Mean Higher Sea-Level Rise.

2014-05-14. Ground-breaking study: Hurricanes reaching peak strength farther north as globe warms, tropics expand. Excerpt: ...Identifying a firm connection between hurricane activity and manmade global warming has proven elusive.  The 2013 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report stated there was “low confidence” in any link between observed changes in tropical storms and human activity. But this poleward shift in the peak strength of tropical storms could be the smoking gun linking human-induced climate change and hurricane behavior. The study, to be published in the journal Nature Thursday, analyzed where tropical storms around the world reached peak intensity between 1982 and 2012. It finds this location of maximum storm strength leaped poleward about 33 miles per decade in the Northern Hemisphere and 38 miles per decade in the Southern Hemisphere. ...The author team of James Kossin of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), MIT’s Emanuel, and Gabriel Vecchi of NOAA links the storm shift to an expansion of the Hadley Cell – a massive atmospheric circulation that transports heat from the tropics to the mid-latitudes and drives the easterly trade winds.   In other words, the tropics are occupying a larger area.  The expansion “is likely due largely to human influences” or the heating effect of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, the study says....  http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/05/14/ground-breaking-study-hurricanes-reaching-peak-strength-farther-north-as-globe-warms-tropics-expand/.  By Jason Samenow, Washington Post.

2014-04-23. NASA Satellites Show Drought May Take Toll on Congo Rainforest. Excerpt: A new analysis of NASA satellite data shows Africa's Congo rainforest, the second-largest tropical rainforest in the world, has undergone a large-scale decline in greenness over the past decade. ...The study found a gradually decreasing trend in Congo rainforest greenness, sometimes referred to as "browning," suggesting a slow adjustment to the long-term drying trend. This is in contrast to the more immediate response seen in the Amazon, such as large-scale tree mortality, brought about by more episodic drought events....  http://www.nasa.gov/press/2014/april/nasa-satellites-show-drought-may-take-toll-on-congo-rainforest/#.U1yE5sfgWa4.  NASA RELEASE 14-117.

2014-03-04. Sydney Opera House and Statue of Liberty 'will be lost to sea level rise'   Excerpt: ...Famous global landmarks including the Statue of Liberty, Tower of London and Sydney Opera House will be lost to rising seas caused by climate change, scientists have warned. Even with just a further 3C of warming – well within the range to which the UN climate science panel expects temperatures to rise by the end of the century – nearly one-fifth of the planet's 720 world heritage sites will be affected as ice sheets melt and warming oceans expand. ...The study, published in the journal Environmental Research Letters, looked at how many Unesco sites would be threatened after 2000 years of rising sea levels, but ..."It's relatively safe to say that we will see the first impacts at these sites in the 21st century," lead author Prof Ben Marzeion, of the University of Innsbruck in Austria, told the Guardian. ...particularly vulnerable sites included the leaning tower of Pisa, which is not directly on the coast but would be affected by sea level rises as a result of even a low temperature increase because it is very low-lying. He also cited Venice, ... Hamburg... and Bremen in Germany. ...Westminster Abbey and Westminster Palace, ... city centres of Bruges in Belgium, Naples in Italy and St Petersburg in Russia, .... South-east Asia will have the highest number of people affected by sea level rises,  ...The threat to cultural sites from the sea is likely to be underestimated, the study admits, as it does not take into account temporary rises in sea levels caused by storm surges such as those that battered the east coast of the UK last December. "Essentially those are uncertainties that we cannot quantify, so we made sure we are on the conservative side of the estimates," Marzeion said.... http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/mar/05/sydney-opera-house-statue-liberty-sea-level-climate-change-unescorl. Adam Vaughan, The Guardian.

2014-02-25. Study Implicates Mankind in a Peruvian Glacier’s Retreat. Excerpt: Sitting on a flat volcanic plain 18,000 feet above sea level, the great Quelccaya ice cap of Peru is the largest piece of ice in the tropics. In recent decades, as scientists have watched it melt at an accelerating pace, it has also become a powerful symbol of global warming. ...a paper released on Tuesday by the journal Geology, a group led by Justin S. Stroup and Meredith A. Kelly of Dartmouth College in Hanover, N.H., ...[concludes] that the glacier is sensitive to temperature and that other factors, like the amount of snowfall, are secondary, thus supporting a view long held by Dr. Thompson that the glacier can essentially be viewed as a huge thermometer. ...that is a sobering finding, considering ... that a part of the glacier that had apparently taken 1,600 years to grow had melted in a mere 25 years. ...land ice is melting virtually everywhere on the planet. That has been occurring since a 500-year period called the Little Ice Age that ended in about 1850, but the pace seems to have accelerated substantially in recent decades as human emissions have begun to overwhelm the natural cycles. ...The biggest scientific battle has been fought not over Quelccaya but over Mount Kilimanjaro in Tanzania. ...Dr. Kelly is now looking for evidence that may shed light on the Kilimanjaro debate. Her method involves dating ridges of rock and debris, known as moraines, that glaciers leave at their far edges.... http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/26/science/study-links-melting-peruvian-ice-cap-to-higher-temperatures.html. By Justin Gillis, The New York Times.

2014-02-04. ScienceShot: Hungry Polar Bears Turn to Seabird Eggs.  Excerpt: Polar bears are known for dining on whatever they want, from human garbage to reindeer to berries. But in the lower latitudes of the Canadian Arctic, they primarily prey on ringed seals.... Over the past 3 decades, however, the sea ice in this region has progressively broken up earlier than in the past due to climate change. The bears now face 2 months of ice-free habitat. Without seals to eat, the bears have increasingly turned to terrestrial prey, including the eggs of northern common eiders and thick-billed murres. ...polar bears are also dining on snow goose eggs and caribou—does ...polar bears in areas where the ice breaks up early don’t have enough time to hunt seals and acquire the fat reserves they need to make it through the ice-free season. The vanishing sea ice, the researchers conclude, is causing a cascade of unexpected ecological effects—not just on polar bears but also on seabirds.... http://news.sciencemag.org/climate/2014/02/scienceshot-hungry-polar-bears-turn-seabird-eggs. Virginia Morrill, Science Magazine (AAAS).

2014-01-31. A Bird Flies South, and It’s News.    Excerpt: DUXBURY, Mass. — The snowy owl ... had been where no bird should safely be — Logan International Airport in Boston.... Not only is the Boston area seeing the largest number of snowy owls ever recorded, they are popping up in territory far from their usual habitat near the Arctic Circle.  ...No one is sure why so many snowies are showing up in so many places — whether it can be attributed to more food in their Arctic habitats than usual, or climate change at the top of the world. “Think about the canary in the coal mine,” said Henry Tepper, the president of Mass Audubon, “you think about the snowy owl in the Arctic.” ...Ornithologists and bird watchers are not sure why the birds have come so far and in such great numbers this year. ...Climate change, which has been thawing Arctic ice so actively that new shipping routes are opening in the far north, could have disrupted the habitat, Professor [Kevin J.] McGowan [an ornithologist at Cornell] speculated. “That has to be one of the most vulnerable ecosystems on the planet. That’s going to be one of the first places that falls apart when there is warming in the atmosphere,” he said. This may have driven more of them south instead of north. A big shift in bird movement one year might just be a freakish event, he said, or potentially “it’s the beginning of a pattern.”... http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/01/us/influx-of-snowy-owls-thrills-and-baffles-birders.html. John Schwartz, The New York Times.

2013-12-07.  The End of Snow Is Now?  Excerpt: A new book, DEEP, digs into the science and emotion swirling around climate change and how it will impact the ski industry. ...Porter Fox felt under the gun to research and write "DEEP: The Story of Skiing and the Future of Snow" in just around 18 months. ...For those of us who love sliding on snow, climate change may entail losing more than just deep powder and that dreamy, euphoric state it puts us in. ..."The snowpack in British Columbia has declined by half overall and the ski season in some regions is four to five months shorter than it was 50 years ago," he writes in DEEP.  "Eastern Canada is even warmer… Computer models show the Northeast ski season shrinking to less than 100 days by 2039. Under other models, the mean snow depth for the Rocky Mountains is predicted to drop to zero by 2100." But the more dire effects are being felt in the Alps, where "temperatures are rising three times faster than the global average," he writes.... http://www.outsideonline.com/adventure-travel/adventure-ethics/The-End-of-Snow-Is-Now-.html. Mary Catherine O'Connor, Outside.

2013-12-03. Report warns of climate change ‘tipping points’ within our lifetime.   Excerpt:  UC Berkeley’s Tony Barnosky joined climate scientists this morning at a press conference at the National Academy of Sciences ...to summarize a new report issued today focusing on the short-term effects of climate change and the need to monitor them closely. “Our report focuses on abrupt change, ...things that happen within a few years to decades: basically, over short enough time scales that young people living today would see the societal impacts brought on by faster-than-normal planetary changes,” said Barnosky in an email. Barnosky is professor of integrative biology and a member of the Berkeley Initiative in Global Change Biology (BIGCB). The report, “Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises,” [http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=18373] is available from the National Research Council, part of the National Academies. Abrupt changes are already apparent, the authors noted: the number of serious wildfires has increased dramatically over the past decade, farmers are noticing hotter average temperatures that affect their crop yields, animals and plants are moving up mountainsides to reach cooler temperatures, and the Arctic sea ice is melting back more and more each summer. ...global change could also lead to economic and social impacts, much of this centered around food and water resources and the likelihood of international conflict to secure them. ...Barnosky was the lead author of a 2012 paper [http://newscenter.berkeley.edu/2012/06/06/scientists-uncover-evidence-of-impending-tipping-point-for-earth/] that warned of a global tipping point at which Earth’s systems would irreversibly change as a result of changing climate. ...“Luckily, there is still time to slow climate change if we start dramatic cutbacks to greenhouse gas emissions now,” Barnosky wrote. “That will allow us to avoid the worst-case tipping point scenarios, but that window of opportunity will only be open for another few years, if we continue to change climate at the rate we have been.” [See also: video "Earth May Reach Tipping Point -- http://newscenter.berkeley.edu/2012/06/06/scientists-uncover-evidence-of-impending-tipping-point-for-earth/http://newscenter.berkeley.edu/2013/12/03/report-warns-of-climate-change-tipping-points-within-our-lifetime/. Robert Sanders, UC Berkeley News Center.

2013-12-05. Diseases on the move because of climate change.  Excerpt:  ...Valley Fever is one of multiple diseases experts say are spreading in part because of climate change. ...The soil ...in much of the arid Southwest carries the Coccidioides fungus. In dry months, the dust scatters in the wind and can be breathed into the lungs, infecting humans, dogs and cats and other mammals. ...reported cases increased tenfold from 1998 to 2011, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. ...Valley Fever is an illness that's moving. Historically, it has been found in the dry areas of California and the Southwest. But Thompson, along with the CDC, reported three cases of cocci in eastern Washington state in 2012. ...Naegleria fowleri, "the brain-eating amoeba"...commonly found in freshwater lakes and rivers, ...tend to occur in areas where waters warm in the summer. Minnesota had its first ever infection in 2010, 550 miles farther north than an infection had ever been seen before. [See also http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/12/04/brain-eating-amoeba-annie-bahneman-pam-parasite/3633531/] Elizabeth Weise, USA Today http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/12/04/climate-change-disease/2623863/.

2013-11-18. Midwest Tornadoes: Severe Storms Sweep Across 12 States, Killing 6.   Excerpt:  ...Early Monday, Washington [IL] Mayor Gary Manier estimated that from 250 to 500 homes were either damaged or destroyed in the storm and that it wasn't clear when residents would be allowed to return. ...The unusually powerful late-season wave of thunderstorms brought damaging winds and tornadoes to 12 states: Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee, West Virginia, Pennsylvania and western New York. ...Illinois was the hardest struck with at least six people killed and dozens more injured. ...Although about 80 reports of tornadoes had come in as of Sunday night, the National Weather Service's Bunting said the actual number will likely be in the 30 to 40 range...because the same tornado often gets reported multiple times. Weather service meteorologist Matt Friedlein said such weather is rare this late in the year, but that strong winds coupled with temperatures in the 60s and 70s spawned Sunday's storms.... http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/11/18/midwest-tornadoes_n_4294412.html. David Mercer and Don Babwin, Huffington Post.

2013-11-01. Vanishing Islands (YouTube video).  LYON's first in the video series highlighting the effects of climate change in the Pacific Islands and how people are adapting to sea level rise on the front lines of climate change. Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) is a federation of four states (Chuuk, Kosrae, Pohnpei and Yap) where most of the population lives on high islands, but about 30,000 people live on low islands. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hFsZm0ddAL8&feature=youtu.be. By LYON's.

2013-10-15.  Climate change affecting North American forests, researchers find.    Excerpt: Climate change is making North American forests more vulnerable to insects and disease but is helping some trees grow faster and increase their resistance to pests, a team of researchers from Dartmouth University said Monday. Researchers reviewed almost 500 scientific studies dating to the 1950s ... as part of the National Climate Assessment in 2012. The researchers said that higher temperatures and increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are boosting tree growth, which could have a positive impact on economies that depend on timber and wood pulp, and could help pull carbon out of the ecosystem. ....Some areas devastated by insects or disease may be restored because of continued warming, with insects dying off because temperatures are too high for them, Weed said. But warming also allows insects to flourish and exaggerates their natural role in keeping forests healthy, the researchers found. Various types of bark beetles, for example, are doing more damage than expected, they said. ... “Mountain and southern pine beetles are attacking hosts farther north and at higher elevations than historic norms,” in part because warmer winters are allowing insects to survive. ...droughts and fires also have been linked to climate change.... http://www.denverpost.com/nationworld/ci_24313791/climate-change-affecting-north-american-forests-researchers-find. By Lenny Bernstein, The Washington Post.

2013-10-15.  Moose Die-Off Alarms Scientists.  Excerpt: ...Across North America — in places as far-flung as Montana and British Columbia, New Hampshire and Minnesota — moose populations are in steep decline. And no one is sure why. ...Several factors are clearly at work. But a common thread in most hypotheses is climate change. Winters have grown substantially shorter across much of the moose’s range. In New Hampshire, a longer fall with less snow has greatly increased the number of winter ticks, a devastating parasite. “You can get 100,000 ticks on a moose,” said Kristine Rines, a biologist with the state’s Fish and Game Department.  In Minnesota, the leading culprits are brain worms and liver flukes. Both spend part of their life cycles in snails, which thrive in moist environments. Another theory is heat stress. Moose are made for cold weather, and when the temperature rises above 23 degrees Fahrenheit in winter, as has happened more often in recent years, they expend extra energy to stay cool. That can lead to exhaustion and death. ...Unregulated hunting may also play a role in moose mortality. So may wolves in Minnesota and the West.... http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/15/science/earth/something-is-killing-off-the-moose.html. Jim Robbins, The New York Times.

2013-10-09.  By 2047, Coldest Years May Be Warmer Than Hottest in Past, Scientists Say.  Excerpt: ...Scientists from the University of Hawaii at Manoa calculated that by 2047, plus or minus five years, the average temperatures in each year will be hotter across most parts of the planet than they had been at those locations in any year between 1860 and 2005. ... Unprecedented climates will arrive even sooner in the tropics, Dr. Mora’s group predicts, putting increasing stress on human societies there, on the coral reefs that supply millions of people with fish, and on the world’s greatest forests. ...models show that unprecedented temperatures could be delayed by 20 to 25 years if there is a vigorous global effort to bring emissions under control. ...emissions cuts would buy critical time for nature and for human society to adapt, as well as for development of technologies that might help further reduce emissions. ...The Mora paper is a rarity: a class project that turned into a high-profile article in one of the world’s most prestigious scientific journals. Dr. Mora ...assigned a class of graduate students to analyze forecasts produced by 39 of the world’s foremost climate models. The models, whose results are publicly available, are operated by 21 research centers in 12 countries, and financed largely by governments.  Thousands of scientific papers have been published about the model results, but the students identified one area of analysis that was missing ... how the temperature changes in specific places might compare with historical norms. ... Many people perceive climate change to be most serious at the poles, and the largest absolute changes in temperature are already occurring in the Arctic and parts of Antarctica. But the Mora paper dovetails with previous research suggesting that the biggest risks to nature and to human society, at least in the near term, may actually be in the tropics.... http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/10/science/earth/by-2047-coldest-years-will-be-warmer-than-hottest-in-past.html. Justin Gillis, The New York Times.

2013-09-11.  Seachange--The Pacific's Perilous Turn.   Excerpt: Globally, overfishing remains a scourge. But souring seas and ocean warming are expected to reduce even more of the plants and animals we depend on for food and income. ....  http://apps.seattletimes.com/reports/sea-change/2013/sep/11/pacific-ocean-perilous-turn-overview/. By Craig Welch, The Seattle Times.

2013-09-05.  Explaining Extreme Events of 2012 from a Climate Perspective.   Excerpt: New analyses find evidence of human-caused climate change in half of the 12 extreme weather and climate events analyzed from 2012. ...according to the report ...released today by the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. Key findings include: Human-induced climate change had little impact on the lack of precipitation in the central United States in 2012. ...however, human-induced climate change was found to be a factor in the magnitude of warmth and was found to have affected the likelihood of such heat waves. High temperatures, such as those experienced in the U.S. in 2012 are now likely to occur four times as frequently due to human-induced climate change. ...The record-setting impacts of Sandy were largely attributable to the massive storm surge and resulting inundation from the onshore-directed storm path coincident with high tide. ...climate-change related increases in sea level have nearly doubled today’s annual probability of a Sandy-level flood recurrence as compared to 1950. ...The extremely low Arctic sea ice extent in summer 2012 ... cannot be explained by natural variability alone. Summer Arctic sea ice ... is expected to be largely absent by mid-century. ...The unusually high amount of summer rainfall in the United Kingdom in 2012 was largely the result of natural variability. ...The July 2012 extreme rainfall events in North China and southwestern Japan were mainly due to natural variability.... http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2013/20130905-extremeweatherandclimateevents.html. NOAA. 

2013-09-03. NASA-Led Study Reveals Industrial Soot's Role in 1800s Glacier Retreat. http://www.nasa.gov/press/2013/september/nasa-led-study-reveals-industrial-soots-role-in-1800s-glacier-retreat/  NASA RELEASE 13-273.  Excerpt: A NASA-led team of scientists has uncovered strong evidence that soot from a rapidly industrializing Europe caused the abrupt retreat of mountain glaciers in the European Alps that began in the 1860s, a period often thought of as the end of the Little Ice Age....

2013-08-08.  Agency finds climate change taking toll on California.  Excerpt: California lakes are warming, sea levels are rising, wildfires are spreading, and mountain plants and animals are migrating to higher ground as the impact of climate change takes hold throughout the state, a new report says. The evidence of the effects of the warming trend emerged in an analysis of 36 "indicators" - warning signs of changes - that are detailed in the 240-page report released Wednesday by the state's Environmental Protection Agency. ..."The combined impact described by the indicators is dramatic," said Matthew Rodriquez, California's secretary for environmental protection, whose agency specialists prepared the report. "The science is clear that we're already seeing significant changes in every part of the state," he said Wednesday. "If you look at these indicators, you can't really debate that climate change, and its impact, is here." ..."Sea-level rise could lead to flooding of low-lying areas, loss of coastal wetlands, erosion of coastal beaches, saltwater contamination of groundwater aquifers and impacts on roads, sewage treatment plants and other coastal infrastructure," the report warns. ...The annual average acres burned by California wildfires in the dozen years since 2000 (598,000 acres) is more than double the acreage burned in the 50 years between 1950 and 2000 (264,000 acres). ...A study on Southern California's Santa Rosa Mountains shows that dominant plant species have moved upward - by an average of 213 feet over the past 30 years. And in the Sierra Nevada, the lower edge of conifer-dominated forests has been retreating upslope for the past 60 years.... http://www.sfgate.com/science/article/Agency-finds-climate-change-taking-toll-on-4716422.php. David Perlman, San Francisco Chronicle.

2013-07-24.  Polar Thaw Opens Shortcut for Russian Natural Gas.  Excerpt: ...The polar ice cap is melting, and if executives at the Russian energy company Novatek feel guilty about profiting from that, they do not let it be known in public. ...Novatek, in partnership with the French energy company Total and the China National Petroleum Corporation, is building a $20 billion liquefied natural gas plant on the central Arctic coast of Russia. It is one of the first major energy projects to take advantage of the summer thawing of the Arctic caused by global warming. The plant, called Yamal LNG, would send gas to Asia along the sea lanes known as the Northeast Passage, which opened for regular international shipping only four years ago. .... http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/25/business/energy-environment/polar-thaw-opens-shortcut-for-russian-natural-gas.html. Andrew E. Kramer, New York Times. [Note: this is a "socio-economic-inclusive" positive feedback loop: the more global warming there is, the easier it is to transport fossil fuel, which in turn makes more global warming.]

2013-07-23.  Wildfire season getting longer.  Excerpt: ...Slight temperature increases have extended fire seasons and boosted burned acreage, while housing encroachment into the forest has dramatically increased the cost of fighting fires. Analysts say 16 percent of the West's so-called wildland-urban interface is now developed, and already fire suppression consumes nearly half of the U.S. Forest Service budget. If that encroachment reaches 50 percent of the area where private lands border federal forests, economist Ray Rasker of non-profit research group Headwaters Economics said, the costs would climb to $6 billion — more than the current Forest Service budget. ...The fires that threaten precarious communities are growing more ferocious in part because of climate change, said Dave Cleaves, climate-change adviser for the U.S. Forest Service. "We're seeing more acres burned and more burned in large fires," Cleaves said. ...Warmer summers exacerbate drought, as do quicker-evaporating winter rains and snowmelt. These trends increase forest diseases and pests, such as bark beetles, which have killed millions of acres of trees in the West, creating vast amounts of fuel to feed fires. "The changing climate is not only accelerating the intensity of these disturbances," Cleaves said, "but linking them more closely together." On average, the West's fire season is now two months longer than it was in the early 1970s, Forest Service Chief Tom Tidwell said during testimony before a U.S. Senate committee last month. A 2006 study by University of California-Merced geographer Anthony Westerling put the increase at 78 days..... http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/07/23/wildfire-season-getting-longer/2581381/. Brandon Loomis, The Arizona Republic [article in USA Today].

2013-07-22.  Alaska Looks for Answers in Glacier’s Summer Flood Surges.    Excerpt: ...glaciers ...are melting and retreating rapidly all over the world. But the unpredictable flood surges at the Mendenhall Glacier, about 14 miles from downtown Juneau, Alaska’s capital, are turning a jog into a sprint as global temperatures and climate variability increase. ...Starting in July 2011, and each year since, sudden torrents of water shooting out from beneath the glacier have become a new facet of Juneau’s brief, shimmering high summer season. In that first, and so far biggest, measured flood burst, an estimated 10 billion gallons gushed out in three days, threatening homes and property along the Mendenhall River that winds through part of the city. There have been at least two smaller bursts this year. ...Glaciologists even have a name for the process, which is happening in many places all over the world as climates change: jokulhlaup, an Icelandic word usually translated as “glacier leap.”.... http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/23/us/alaska-looks-for-answers-in-glaciers-summer-flood-surges.html. Kirk Johnson, New York Times.

2013-07-10. Giant Iceberg Breaks Off Antarctic Glacier. Excerpt:  A massive iceberg, larger than the city of Chicago, broke off of Antarctica's Pine Island Glacier on Monday (July 8), and is now floating freely in the Amundsen Sea, according to a team of German scientists. The newborn iceberg measures about 278 square miles (720 square kilometers), and was seen by TerraSAR-X, an earth-observing satellite operated by the German Space Agency (DLR). ...Humbert and her colleagues did not draw direct connections between this week's calving event and climate change, ...the flow of the Pine Island Glacier may be driven by other factors, Humbert said. ...whether the flow speeds up or slows down is based more on changing wind directions in the Amundsen Sea, and less by rising air temperatures. ...Still, if the glacier's flow speeds up, it could have serious consequences, the researchers said. The Pine Island Glacier currently acts as a plug, holding back part of the immense West Antarctic Ice Sheet whose melting ice contributes to rising sea levels.... http://www.livescience.com/38078-pine-island-glacier-iceberg.html. Denise Chow, LiveScience.

2013-06-13    NCDC Releases 2012 Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters Information.  Excerpt: 2012 saw 11 weather and climate disaster events each with losses exceeding $1 billion in damages. This makes 2012 the second costliest year since 1980, with a total of more than $110 billion in damages throughout the year. The 2012 total damages rank only behind 2005, which incurred $160 billion in damages due in part to four devastating land-falling hurricanes. The 2012 billion-dollar events included seven severe weather and tornado events, two tropical cyclone events, and the yearlong drought and its associated wildfires. These 11 events killed over 300 people and had devastating economic effects on the areas impacted. Billion-Dollar Weather/Climate Disasters: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/overview.   Table: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/events.    http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/news/ncdc-releases-2012-billion-dollar-weather-and-climate-disasters-information.  NOAA.

2013-03-13.  Warm Ocean, Not Icebergs, Causing Most of Antarctic Ice Shelves' Mass Loss.   Excerpt:  Ocean waters melting the undersides of Antarctic ice shelves are responsible for most of the continent's ice shelf mass loss, a new study by NASA and university researchers has found. ...the rates of basal melt, or the melting of the ice shelves from underneath, ...accounted for 55 percent of all Antarctic ice shelf mass loss from 2003 to 2008, an amount much higher than previously thought. Antarctica holds about 60 percent of the planet's fresh water locked into its massive ice sheet. ...Determining how ice shelves melt will help scientists improve projections of how the Antarctic ice sheet will respond to a warming ocean and contribute to sea level rise.  ...In some places, basal melt exceeds iceberg calving. In other places, the opposite is true. But in total, Antarctic ice shelves lost 2,921 trillion pounds (1,325 trillion kilograms) of ice per year in 2003-2008 through basal melt, while iceberg formation accounted for 2,400 trillion pounds (1,089 trillion kilograms) of mass loss each year. ...For images related to this release, please visit: http://go.nasa.gov/175OAkF .... http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2013/jun/HQ_13-183_Melting_Ice_Shelves.html. NASA Release 13-183.

2013-06-06.  115 U.S. Ski Areas Seek Climate Change Action From Congress.   Excerpt: Ski areas from 24 states have signed the Climate Declaration, which calls on U.S. federal policymakers and legislators to seize the economic opportunity of addressing climate change. These 115 ski areas join Climate Declaration founding signatory Aspen Snowmass and 40 other American businesses, including General Motors, Nike and Levi Strauss & Co., as well as Ceres, a coalition of large investors, companies and public interest groups, in declaring that a bold response to the climate challenge is “one of America’s greatest economic opportunities of the 21st century.” Ski areas in the United States employ some 160,000 people and generate roughly $12.2 billion in annual revenue. ...ski areas are developing renewable energy on site through the application of wind, solar, geothermal and micro-hydro technology. Ski areas are applying energy-efficient green building techniques, retrofitting existing facilities to save energy, replacing inefficient compressors in snowmaking operations, using alternative fuels in resort vehicle fleets, implementing anti-idling policies and providing or promoting car pooling or mass transit use by guests and employees....  http://ens-newswire.com/2013/06/06/115-u-s-ski-areas-seek-climate-change-action-from-congress/. Environment News Service.

2013-05-24. Russia evacuates 'drifting' Arctic research station as ice floe melts  Excerpt: MOSCOW As global warming accelerates, the life span of Arctic ice floes is decreasing, shocking Russian scientists who base their 'drifting' research stations there.  ...Russia's environment ministry has ordered the urgent evacuation of 16 scientists from a research station on an Arctic ice floe near Canada because the ice around it is disintegrating at an alarming rate, giving the station little chance of survival. ...The emergency has sparked a wider debate among Russian Arctic researchers over how to continue their work amid rapidly changing climate conditions, and in an atmosphere in which the race for newly  uncovered Arctic resources has become one of the most politically charged issues on the international agenda. "It's getting harder and harder to find a proper block of ice to sustain one of these stations," says Viktor Boyarsky, a former polar explorer and current director of the Russian State Museum of the Arctic and Antarctic in St. Petersburg. ...If current trends continue, Russia will have to start building artificial platforms that can withstand Arctic ice conditions, experts say.... http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2013/0524/Russia-evacuates-drifting-Arctic-research-station-as-ice-floe-melts; Fred Weir, Christian Science Monitor

2013-05-29. As Glaciers Melt, Alpine Mountains Lose Their Glue, Threatening Swiss Village   Excerpt:  ...Grindelwald, population 3,800, lies in the foothills of a wall of Alpine peaks, rising to more than 13,000 feet. It is also home to two of Switzerland’s largest glaciers, the Upper and Lower Grindelwald Glaciers, which for millenniums have snaked their way through Alpine gorges toward the town. With global warming, the glaciers are melting. Once stretching to the edge of town, they now end high in the mountains. Moreover, their greenish glacial water is forming lakes. In summer, when the melting accelerates, floodwaters threaten the area. ...the shrinking of the glaciers removes a kind of buttress supporting parts of the mountains, menacing the region with rock slides. Grindelwald stands as a stark example of what is happening these days to Switzerland’s glaciers, and there are more than a hundred, large and small. ...the warming reduces the effect of permafrost that once acted as a sort of glue binding together the mass of the mountains. ...a chunk of the Eiger amounting to about 900,000 cubic yards fell from the east face, causing the cloud of rock dust.... http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/30/world/europe/in-swiss-alps-glacial-melting-unglues-mountains.html; John Tagliabue, New York Times.

2013-05-14.  Climate change may be baring Mount Everest    Excerpt: A warming climate is melting the glaciers of Mount Everest, shrinking the frozen cloak of Earth’s highest peak by 13% in the last 50 years, researchers have found. Rocks and natural debris previously covered by snow are appearing now as the snow line has retreated 590 feet, according to Sudeep Thakuri, a University of Milan scientist who led the research. ...Researchers said they believe the observed changes could be due to human-generated greenhouse gases altering global climate, although their research has not established a firm connection. ...Small glaciers of less than a square kilometer (about 247 acres), are vanishing fastest, registering a 43% decline in surface area since the 1960s. ...“The Himalayan glaciers and ice caps are considered a water tower for Asia since they store and supply water downstream during the dry season,” said Thakuri. “Downstream populations are dependent on the melt water for agriculture, drinking and power production.” ...The plateau is of concern because it is the ultimate source of drinking and irrigation water for more than 1 billion people in Asia. http://www.latimes.com/news/science/sciencenow/la-sci-sn-everest-climate-20130514,0,7957473.story    By Geoffrey Mohan, Los Angeles Times. See also

2013-05-13. America's first climate refugees.   Excerpt: Sabrina Warner keeps having the same nightmare: a huge wave rearing up out of the water and crashing over her home, forcing her to swim for her life with her toddler son. ...Warner's vision is not far removed from a reality written by climate change. The people of Newtok, on the west coast of Alaska and about 400 miles south of the Bering Strait that separates the state from Russia, are living a slow-motion disaster that will end, very possibly within the next five years, with the entire village being washed away. The Ninglick River coils around Newtok on three sides before emptying into the Bering Sea. It has steadily been eating away at the land, carrying off 100ft or more some years, in a process moving at unusual speed because of climate change. Eventually all of the villagers will have to leave, becoming America's first climate change refugees. ...A report by the US Army Corps of Engineers predicted that the highest point in the village – the school of Warner's nightmare – could be underwater by 2017. ...more than 180 native communities in Alaska, ... are flooding and losing land because of the ice melt that is part of the changing climate. ...The proposed new site for Newtok, voted on by the villagers and approved by government planners, lies only nine miles away, .... But the cost of the move could run as high as $130m.... For the villagers of Newtok, finding the cash, and finding their way through the government bureaucracy, is proving the challenge of their lives.... http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/interactive/2013/may/13/newtok-alaska-climate-change-refugees    Suzanne Goldenberg    theguardian

2013-04-05. A Stubborn Drought Tests Texas Ranchers http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/06/business/a-long-drought-tests-texas-cattle-ranchers-patience-and-creativity.html. Stefanie Strom, New York Times. See also video at http://www.nytimes.com/video/2013/04/05/business/100000002112739/drought-on-the-range.html - Excerpt: ...The persistence of the drought here has forced ranchers to use all the creative techniques they can muster to survive. For some, it has meant knowing as much about land management and grass as they know about the bloodlines of their herds. ...For others, it is knowing the right moment to sell calves or to gamble on something called “rain insurance.” The cattle herd nationwide is at its lowest level in 60 years, and nowhere is that more apparent than in Texas, the nation’s largest cattle-producing state. The Texas inventory of cattle and calves was 11.3 million on Jan. 1, a decline of 5 percent from a year earlier and the lowest level since 1967, according to the Agriculture Department. The state’s beef cattle inventory fell even more, to 4.02 million head, down 12 percent from 2012, when similarly precipitous declines occurred. The sharp contraction, brought on by two years of drought in Texas followed by a year of drought across the Great Plains that drove feed prices sky high, has left some wondering if the state will ever again have herds as large as it once boasted....

2013 Apr 4.    In Sign of Warming, 1,600 Years of Ice in Andes Melted in 25 Years. http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/05/world/americas/1600-years-of-ice-in-perus-andes-melted-in-25-years-scientists-say.html, by Justin Gillis, New York Times.  Excerpt: ...Glacial ice in the Peruvian Andes that took at least 1,600 years to form has melted in just 25 years, scientists reported Thursday, the latest indication that the recent spike in global temperatures has thrown the natural world out of balance.  The evidence comes from a remarkable find at the margins of the Quelccaya ice cap in Peru, the world’s largest tropical ice sheet. Rapid melting there in the modern era is uncovering plants that were locked in a deep freeze when the glacier advanced many thousands of years ago. Dating of those plants, using a radioactive form of carbon in the plant tissues that decays at a known rate, has given scientists an unusually precise method of determining the history of the ice sheet’s margins....

2013 March 26. New Mexico Farmers Seek 'Priority Call' as Drought Persists. By Felicity Barringer, The NY Times. Excerpt: The drought-fueled anger of southeastern New Mexico’s farmers and ranchers is boiling, and there is nowhere near enough water in the desiccated Pecos River to cool it down. Roswell, about 75 miles to the north, has somewhat more water available and so is the focus of intense resentment here...For decades, the regional status quo meant the northerners pumped groundwater and the southerners piped surface water. Now, amid the worst drought on record, some in Carlsbad say they must upend the status quo to survive. They want to make what is known as a priority call on the Pecos River....

2013-03-21.  Wichita Falls, Texas, Could Go Dry by Year's End | Audrey White, The Texas Tribune. Excerpt: The Texas government keeps a list of a communities that could run out of water within 180 days. Most are small, affecting a few hundred or few thousand people. But now there is a big city on the list — Wichita Falls, near the Oklahoma border, home to more than 100,000 people. Wichita Falls was added to the list last month when lake levels dropped to 40 percent and the city entered Stage 3 watering restrictions. Currently, residents can water only once per week, and city officials warn that the restrictions could tighten further sometime this summer. ...More than three-quarters of the state is experiencing drought, and weather experts expect little relief in the next few months. ...Wichita Falls will almost certainly implement Stage 4 drought restrictions by the end of summer, and perhaps as early as June, .... Most likely, Stage 4 will include no outdoor watering, no filling of pools and additional restrictions on car-wash businesses. Industrial users could also be affected, he said.  ...“all turf, trees, shrubs, flowers would have to die." Nix is working with the TCEQ to create and implement a water reuse system that would treat wastewater to return it to the drinking water supply, hopefully by early next year....  .... See full article at http://www.texastribune.org/2013/03/21/wichita-falls-among-cities-could-go-dry-years-end/.

2013 March 10.  Amplified Greenhouse Effect Shifts North's Growing Seasons. By NASA Release 13-069. Excerpt: Vegetation growth at Earth's northern latitudes increasingly resembles lusher latitudes to the south, according to a NASA-funded study based on a 30-year record of land surface and newly improved satellite data sets....

2013 February 05. Report: Climate change could devastate agriculture. By Christopher Doerning, USA Today. Excerpt: Climate change could have a drastic and harmful effect on U.S. agriculture, forcing farmers and ranchers to alter where they grow crops and costing them millions of dollars in additional costs to tackle weeds, pests and diseases that threaten their operations, a sweeping government report said Tuesday. An analysis released by the Agriculture Department said that although U.S. crops and livestock have been able to adapt to changes in their surroundings for close to 150 years, the accelerating pace and intensity of global warming during the next few decades may soon be too much for the once-resilient sector to overcome. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said 2012 was the hottest year ever in the USA since record-keeping began in 1895, surpassing the previous high by a full degree Fahrenheit. The country was battered by the worst drought in more than 50 years, and crops withered away in bone-dry fields across the Midwest....

2013 January 27.  Major climate changes looming. By Carolyn Lochhead, San Francisco Chronicle. Excerpt:  ..."We are poised right at the edge of some very major changes on Earth," said Anthony Barnosky, a UC Berkeley professor of biology who studies the interaction of climate change with population growth and land use. ...At current trends, the Earth could warm by 4 degrees Celsius in 50 years, according to a November World Bank report. ... "The last time Earth was 4 degrees warmer than it is now was about 14 million years ago," Barnosky said. ...it is technically feasible to halt such changes by nearly ending the use of fossil fuels. ...Katharine Hayhoe, an evangelical Christian and climatologist at Texas Tech University "... it's not just about thermometers or satellite instruments,"..."It's about looking in our own backyards, when the trees are flowering now compared to 30 years ago, what types of birds and butterflies and bugs that ... used to be further south." ...The pine bark beetle, held in check by winter freezes, is epidemic over millions of acres of forests from California to South Dakota. Oceans, which absorb CO2, have increased in acidity, damaging coral reefs, shellfish and organisms at the bottom of the food chain. ... such changes in ocean chemistry in the geologic past were accompanied by "mass extinctions of ocean or terrestrial life or both."  ...wind and solar could power the world many times over. ...the world would need to install 1.7 billion solar rooftops and 4 million wind turbines….

2013 January 21. How High Could the Tide Go. By Justin Gillis, The New York Times. Excerpt: …Experts say the emissions that may make a huge increase of sea level inevitable are expected to occur in just the next few decades. They fear that because the world’s coasts are so densely settled, the rising oceans will lead to a humanitarian crisis lasting many hundreds of years. Scientists say it has been difficult to get people to understand or focus on the importance, for future generations, of today’s decisions about greenhouse gases. Their evidence that the gases represent a problem is based not just on computerized forecasts of the future, as is commonly believed, but on what they describe as a growing body of evidence about what occurred in the past. To add to that body of knowledge, Dr. Raymo is studying geologic history going back several million years. The earth has warmed up many times, for purely natural reasons, and those episodes often featured huge shifts of climate, partial collapse of the polar ice sheets and substantial increases in sea level….

2013 January 10.  Heat, Flood or Icy Cold, Extreme Weather Rages Worldwide. By Sarah Lyall, The New York Times. Excerpt:  …Around the world, extreme has become the new commonplace. China is enduring its coldest winter in nearly 30 years. Brazil is in the grip of a dreadful heat spell. Eastern Russia is so freezing — minus 50 degrees Fahrenheit, and counting — that the traffic lights recently stopped working in the city of Yakutsk. Bush fires are raging across Australia, fueled by a record-shattering heat wave. Pakistan was inundated by unexpected flooding in September. A vicious storm bringing rain, snow and floods just struck the Middle East. … said Omar Baddour, chief of the data management applications division at the World Meteorological Organization, …Such events are increasing in intensity as well as frequency, … a sign that climate change is not just about rising temperatures, but also about intense, unpleasant, anomalous weather of all kinds. … in Britain … the floods of 2012 followed the floods of 2007 and also the floods of 2009, which all told have resulted in nearly $6.5 billion in insurance payouts. …Britain’s weather service declared 2012 the … the second-wettest in Britain as a whole, since records began more than 100 years ago.  …there were also severe snowstorms in Sicily and southern Italy for the first time since World War II… tornadoes and waterspouts struck the Italian coast.) …Meanwhile, China is enduring its worst winter in recent memory, … more than 1,000 houses collapsed under a relentless onslaught of snow, while in Inner Mongolia, 180,000 livestock froze to death. The cold has wreaked havoc with crops, sending the price of vegetables soaring. … in South America, energy analysts say that Brazil may face electricity rationing for the first time since 2002, as a heat wave and a lack of rain deplete the reservoirs for hydroelectric plants. …The temperature in Rio de Janeiro climbed to 109.8 degrees on Dec. 26, the city’s highest temperature since official records began in 1915….

2013 January 02. Commodities fear as mighty Mississippi runs dry in drought. By Tim Walker, The Independent.  Excerpt:  … the mighty Mississippi is being choked by drought, as historically low water levels threaten to halt the flow of vital commodities … with potentially devastating economic consequences. Last summer saw the country's worst drought for more than 50 years, damaging crops across the Mid-West and making stretches of the Mississippi perilously shallow and narrow for barge traffic, which typically carries around $7bn of grain, coal, crude oil, cement and other materials and commodities along the river in December and January. ... a section of the river may become impassable by Thursday. …Debra Colbert, senior vice-president of the Waterways Council, told The Independent: "We have never had an extended closure on the Mississippi. This is the height of the export shipping season. From now until March, more than 60 per cent of the nation's grain moves on the inland waterway, bound for export. The impacts are going to be enormous, …." …Responsibility for keeping the shipping channel open falls to the US Army's Corps of Engineers, which said the drought-induced crisis was "equal to or worse than any of the past five decades".  …The region's senators recently wrote to President Obama, pressing for more water to be allowed into the Mississippi from another tributary, the Missouri…. The Corps of Engineers cut the flow of the Missouri by two-thirds in November to stock reservoirs, assuaging drought conditions in more northerly states…

2012 December 07. Global Change session at American Geophysical Union (AGU) meeting, titled The Anthropocene: Confronting the Prospects of a +4C World: (2 hours)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=98M4i6tNgJ8&feature=player_embedded
Includes (session GC51H):

01. Temporal and spatial scales of an Anthropocene Series - Jan A. Zalasiewicz
02. Paleontological evidence for defining the Anthropocene
- Anthony D. Barnosky
03. From forest to farmland and moraine to meadow: Integrated modeling of Holocene land cover change (Invited) - Jed O. Kaplan

04. Transport and Purpose in the Anthropocene (Invited)
- Peter K. Haff
05. The Anthropocene – and International Law of the Holocene (Invited) - Davor Vidas

06. Can a Human-Induced Climate Disaster be Avoided? (Invited) - Robert Watson
07. The impacts of a 4 Degree C world on Sustainable Development
- Rosina M. Bierbaum; Hans Joachim Schellnhuber
08. Balancing benefits and costs in a 4°C world: the need for and challenges of natural-social science dialogue (Invited) - Robert E. Kopp

09. Evidence-based Science Communication (Invited) - Dan Kahan (presented by Jay Gulledge)

2012 Nov 29. Post-Storm Cost May Force Many From Coast Life. By David M. Halbfinger, The NY Times. Excerpt: …Homeowners in storm-damaged coastal areas who had flood insurance — and many more who did not, but will now be required to — will face premium increases of as much as 20 percent or 25 percent per year beginning in January, under legislation enacted in July to shore up the debt-ridden National Flood Insurance Program. The yearly increases will add hundreds, even thousands, of dollars to homeowners’ annual bills. While many homeowners are beginning to rebuild without any thought to future costs, the changes could propel a demographic shift along the Northeast Coast, even in places spared by the storm, according to federal officials, insurance industry executives and regional development experts. Ronald Schiffman, a former member of the New York City Planning Commission, said that barring intervention by Congress or the states, there would be “a massive displacement of low-income families from their historic communities”.….

2012 Nov 29. Ice Sheet Loss at Both Poles Increasing, Major Study Finds | NASA release 12-409.  Excerpt: …An international team of 47 researchers from 26 laboratories, Ice Sheet Mass Balance Inter-comparison Exercise (IMBIE) supported by NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) has combined data from multiple satellites and aircraft to produce the most comprehensive and accurate assessment to date of ice sheet losses in Greenland and Antarctica and their contributions to sea level rise, published … in the journal Science. … the combined rate of melting for the ice sheets covering Greenland and Antarctica has increased during the last 20 years…losing more than three times as much ice each year (equivalent to sea level rise of 0.04 inches or 0.95 millimeters) as they were in the 1990s (equivalent to 0.01 inches or 0.27 millimeters). About two-thirds of the loss is coming from Greenland, with the rest from Antarctica. …Combined, melting of these ice sheets contributed 0.44 inches (11.1 millimeters) to global sea levels since 1992. This accounts for one-fifth of all sea level rise over the 20-year survey period. The remainder is caused by the thermal expansion of the warming ocean, melting of mountain glaciers and small Arctic ice caps, and groundwater mining. "Both ice sheets appear to be losing more ice now than 20 years ago, but the pace of ice loss from Greenland is extraordinary, with nearly a five-fold increase since the mid-1990s," Erik Ivins of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory said. "In contrast, the overall loss of ice in Antarctica has remained fairly constant with the data suggesting a 50-percent increase in Antarctic ice loss during the last decade." …. Read the full article: http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2012/nov/HQ_12-409_Ice_Sheet_Sea_level.html
See also A Reconciled Estimate of Ice-Sheet Mass Balance - Science 30 November 2012: Vol. 338 no. 6111 pp. 1183-1189 DOI: 10.1126/science.1228102

2012 Nov 27. Beetles Warm BC Forests. By Sabrina Richards, TheScientist.  Excerpt:  Pine beetle infestation increases the summertime temperatures of some Canadian forests by 1 degree Celsius—about the same impact as a forest fire—according to new findings published Sunday (November 25) in Nature Geoscience. The beetle populations, spurred into profusion by global warming, appear to be contributing to a temperature feedback loop, …. The results reinforce the conclusion that ecological disturbances like beetle infestations can have significant ecological impacts, said Allan Carroll, an insect ecologist at the University of British Columbia…. ”We have until very recently considered biotic disturbances a bit player [in climate change],” …. The current study confirms that pine beetles can have massive effects that set up “an uncomfortable feedback” wherein warming temperatures encourage more beetle damage, which in turn influences warming… Pine beetles lay their eggs under pine tree bark, introducing a fungus that inhibits nutrient flow in the trees. Usually pine beetles are killed off by freezing winter temperatures, limiting their spread. But a recent spate of warm winters, combined with forests dominated by mature pine trees, enabled a beetle population boom in North America, including parts of Alberta, Wyoming, and Colorado.  About 170,000 square kilometers of British Columbia’s forest—almost 20 percent of the province’s area—have been affected by pine beetle infestations, costing thousands of timber industry jobs. Many studies have focused on the role of global warming on pine beetle outbreaks, but fewer have looked at how the beetles themselves may be contributing to climate change…. Read the full article: http://www.the-scientist.com/?articles.view/articleNo/33447/title/Beetles-Warm-BC-Forests/

2012 Nov 21. With Many Trains Damaged, N.J. Transit Is Criticized Over Where It Stored Them. By Matt Flegenheimer, New York Times. Excerpt:   Less than a month after Hurricane Sandy damaged nearly a quarter of its rail cars and locomotives, New Jersey Transit is facing withering criticism this week for keeping much of its equipment in low-lying yards during the storm, despite forecasts of potential flooding. The agency said 261 rail cars and 62 locomotives had been damaged, many at a maintenance site in Kearny, N.J…. Officials have said that experience helped guide storage decisions before the storm, noting that the Kearny site in particular had never flooded….  James Weinstein, the agency’s executive director, said … the agency could not yet provide a precise cost figure, but placed the damage in the tens of millions of dollars…. Some of the agency’s newest purchases, including dual-powered locomotives, had been stored in Kearny and Hoboken. The agency said nine of the locomotives had been damaged; each cost about $8 million.  . Read the full article: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/22/nyregion/storm-damage-prompts-criticism-of-new-jersey-transits-train-storage-plan.html?nl=todaysheadlines&emc=edit_th_20121122&_r=0

2012 Nov 3. After Getting Back to Normal, Big Job Is Facing New Reality. By N.R. Kleinfield, The New York Times. Excerpt: …Basic restoration [in the areas devastated by Hurricane Sandy] leaves everything just as vulnerable to the next monster storm. Hurricane Sandy is now a gauge of the region’s new fragility. Climate change and extreme weather are presenting government — and the public — with some overwhelming choices…officials must ask whether it is sensible to replace buildings on the Manhattan waterfront, the Jersey Shore or the Long Island coast — and continue to dare nature. After all, the waters surrounding New York have been rising an inch a decade, and the pace is picking up...The cost of the repairs alone will certainly reach tens of billions of dollars. Far-reaching solutions will cost many billions more….Also related: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/04/nyregion/protecting-new-york-city-before-next-time.html

2012 Sept 19. Ending Its Summer Melt, Arctic Sea Ice Sets a New Low That Leads to Warnings. By Justin Gillis, The NY Times. Excerpt: The drastic melting of Arctic sea ice has finally ended for the year,...but not before demolishing the previous record — and setting off new warnings about the rapid pace of change in the region. ...The apparent low point for 2012 was reached Sunday, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center, which said that sea ice that day covered about ... 24 percent, of the surface of the Arctic Ocean. The previous low, set in 2007, was 29 percent. ...The sea ice is declining much faster than had been predicted in the last big United Nations report on the state of the climate, published in 2007. The most sophisticated computer analyses for that report suggested that the ice would not disappear before the middle of this century, ....  James E. Hansen, a prominent NASA climate scientist, said ...“The scientific community realizes that we have a planetary emergency,” Dr. Hansen said. “It’s hard for the public to recognize this because they stick their head out the window and don’t see that much going on.” ... the disappearance of summer ice cover replaces a white, reflective surface with a much darker ocean surface, allowing the region to trap more of the sun’s heat, which in turn melts more ice.... 

2012 Sept 23. A Melting Greenland Weighs Perils Against Potential. By Elisabeth Rosenthal, The NY Times. Excerpt: Vast new deposits of minerals and gems are being discovered as Greenland’s massive ice cap recedes, forming the basis of a potentially lucrative mining industry. This could be momentous for Greenland, which has long relied on half a billion dollars a year in welfare payments from Denmark, its parent state. Mining profits could help Greenland become economically self sufficient, and may someday even render it the first sovereign nation created by global warming...But the rapid transition from a society of individual fishermen and hunters to an economy supported by corporate mining raises difficult questions. How would Greenland’s insular settlements tolerate an influx of thousands of Polish or Chinese construction workers, as has been proposed? Will mining despoil a natural environment essential to Greenland’s national identity — the whales and seals, the silent icy fjords, and mythic polar bears? Can fishermen reinvent themselves as miners?....

2012 Aug 15. Scars on a Dry Land. By David Gessner, OnEarth. Excerpt: ...I saw them: The first square of shaved land, devoid of all vegetation, that signaled another oil drilling site. Then another, and another. Earlier we had seen hundreds of them, both gas and oil, each trailing a squiggling tail, like a group of giant square tadpoles. The tails were roads, and those roads always connected to larger roads, like the new four-lane highway leading down to the Book Cliff divide, site of the U.S. Oil Sands Project, Utah’s very own tar sands. There were not as many roads or sites here, but it was stunning to see them in such a remote, beautiful place...“They used to say that the vegetation would eventually re-claim the sites,” said Steve Bloch, the energy program director for the wilderness alliance, through the headphones. “But scientists no longer think so. Not enough water.” [The oil drilling] scars were permanent then.... 

2012 Sept 19. Ending Its Summer Melt, Arctic Sea Ice Sets a New Low That Leads to Warnings. By Justin Gillis, The NY Times. Excerpt: The drastic melting of Arctic sea ice has finally ended for the year,...but not before demolishing the previous record — and setting off new warnings about the rapid pace of change in the region. ...The apparent low point for 2012 was reached Sunday, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center, which said that sea ice that day covered about ... 24 percent, of the surface of the Arctic Ocean. The previous low, set in 2007, was 29 percent. ...The sea ice is declining much faster than had been predicted in the last big United Nations report on the state of the climate, published in 2007. The most sophisticated computer analyses for that report suggested that the ice would not disappear before the middle of this century, ....  James E. Hansen, a prominent NASA climate scientist, said ...“The scientific community realizes that we have a planetary emergency,” Dr. Hansen said. “It’s hard for the public to recognize this because they stick their head out the window and don’t see that much going on.” ... the disappearance of summer ice cover replaces a white, reflective surface with a much darker ocean surface, allowing the region to trap more of the sun’s heat, which in turn melts more ice….

2012 Sept 18. Race Is On as Ice Melt Reveals Arctic Treasures. By Elisabeth Rosenthal, The NY Times. Excerpt: With Arctic ice melting at record pace, the world’s superpowers are increasingly jockeying for political influence and economic position in outposts like this one, previously regarded as barren wastelands. At stake are the Arctic’s abundant supplies of oil, gas and minerals that are, thanks to climate change, becoming newly accessible along with increasingly navigable polar shipping shortcuts. This year, China has become a far more aggressive player in this frigid field, experts say, provoking alarm among Western powers. While the United States, Russia and several nations of the European Union have Arctic territory, China has none, and as a result, has been deploying its wealth and diplomatic clout to secure toeholds in the region.…

2012 Aug 27. Media Advisory: Arctic sea ice breaks lowest extent on record. From the National Snow & Ice Data Center. Excerpt: Arctic sea ice cover melted to its lowest extent in the satellite record yesterday, breaking the previous record low observed in 2007. Sea ice extent fell to 4.10 million square kilometers (1.58 million square miles) on August 26, 2012. This was 70,000 square kilometers (27,000 square miles) below the September 18, 2007 daily extent of 4.17 million square kilometers (1.61 million square miles)…NSIDC scientist Walt Meier said, "By itself it's just a number, and occasionally records are going to get set. But in the context of what's happened in the last several years and throughout the satellite record, it's an indication that the Arctic sea ice cover is fundamentally changing."….

2012 Aug 06. Study Finds More of Earth Is Hotter and Says Global Warming Is at Work | by By JUSTIN GILLIS, New York Times. Excerpt: …researchers have struggled with the question of whether any particular heat wave or storm can be definitively linked to human-induced climate change. In the new paper [published online on Monday in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences], titled “Perception of Climate Change,” Dr. Hansen and his co-authors [M. Sato and R. Ruedy] compared the global climate of 1951 to 1980, before the bulk of global warming had occurred, with the climate of the years 1981 to 2011. They computed how much of the earth’s land surface in each period was subjected in June, July and August to heat that would have been considered particularly extreme in the period from 1951 to 1980. In that era, they found, only 0.2 percent of the land surface was subjected to extreme summer heat. But from 2006 to 2011, extreme heat covered from 4 to 13 percent of the world, they found. “It confirms people’s suspicions that things are happening” to the climate, Dr. Hansen said in the interview. “It’s just going to get worse.”… The change is so drastic, the paper says, that scientists can claim with near certainty that events like the Texas heat wave last year, the Russian heat wave of 2010 and the European heat wave of 2003 would not have happened without the planetary warming caused by the human release of greenhouse gases…. The findings provoked an immediate split among his scientific colleagues, however…. Read the full article: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/07/science/earth/extreme-heat-is-covering-more-of-the-earth-a-study-says.html?ref=science

2012 June 16. The melting north. By James Astill, The Economist. Excerpt: Almost all Arctic glaciers have receded. The area of Arctic land covered by snow in early summer has shrunk by almost a fifth since 1966. But it is the Arctic Ocean that is most changed...the north-west passage, a sea lane through Canada's 36,000-island Arctic Archipelago, [is left] ice-free for the first time in memory. Almost all Arctic glaciers have receded...Scientists, scrambling to explain this, found that in 2007 every natural variation, including warm weather, clear skies and warm currents, had lined up to reinforce the seasonal melt. But last year there was no such remarkable coincidence: it was as normal as the Arctic gets these days. And the sea ice still shrank to almost the same extent. There is no serious doubt about the basic cause of the warming. It is, in the Arctic as everywhere, the result of an increase in heat-trapping atmospheric gases, mainly carbon dioxide released when fossil fuels are burned. Because the atmosphere is shedding less solar heat, it is warming—a physical effect predicted back in 1896 by Svante Arrhenius, a Swedish scientist. But why is the Arctic warming faster than other places?....

2012 July 10. Global Warming Makes Heat Waves More Likely, Study Finds. By Justin Gillis, The NY Times. Excerpt: A new study found that global warming made the severe heat wave that afflicted Texas last year 20 times as likely as it would have been in the 1960s...The findings, especially the specific numbers attached to some extreme events, represent an increased effort by scientists to respond to a public clamor for information about what is happening to the earth’s climate…The general conclusion of the new research is that many of the extremes being witnessed worldwide are consistent with what scientists expect on a warming planet. Heat waves, in particular, are probably being worsened by global warming, the scientists said. They also cited an intensification of the water cycle, reflected in an increase in both droughts and heavy downpour….

2012 July 04. Searing Sun and Drought Shrivel Corn in Midwest. By Monica Davey, The NY Times. Excerpt: Across a wide stretch of the Midwest, sweltering temperatures and a lack of rain are threatening what had been expected to be the nation’s largest corn crop in generations. Already, some farmers in Illinois and Missouri have given up on parched and stunted fields, mowing them over. National experts say parts of five corn-growing states, including Indiana, Kentucky and Ohio, are experiencing severe or extreme drought conditions...Crop insurance agents and agricultural economists are watching closely, a few comparing the situation with the devastating drought of 1988, when corn yields shriveled significantly, while some farmers have begun alluding, unhappily, to the Dust Bowl of the 1930s. Far more is at stake in the coming pivotal days: with the brief, delicate phase of pollination imminent in many states, miles and miles of corn will rise or fall on whether rain soon appears and temperatures moderate...The driest, hottest conditions have steered clear of some crucial Corn Belt states, including Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota and western Iowa, the nation’s most prolific corn producer…. 

2012 July 01. Forest Service ecologist expects California 'super fires'. By Edward Ortiz, The Sacramento Bee. Excerpt: Intense and deeply destructive "super fires," like Colorado's current Waldo Canyon fire, which has claimed two lives and burned 350 homes, are almost assured in Northern California's future, according to a U.S. Forest Service scientist. "Typically we're seeing an earlier fire season and that fire season is lasting longer," said Malcolm North, plant ecologist with the Pacific Southwest Research Station of the U.S. Forest Service... The culprits, said North, are weather fluctuations and climate change. He said the warmer temperatures and drier winters seen recently in the region are creating ideal conditions for intense and hard-to-control fires like the Colorado fire. "What we're seeing now is that snow reserves are less in the Sierras and runoff is happening earlier in the year," he said...

2012 June 22. Drought returns to threaten North Korean food. By Reuters, Moneycontrol. Excerpt: Drought has returned to threaten precarious food supplies in North Korea…Wolfgang Jamann, the head of the German NGO Welthungerhilfe, said he saw children using bottles and buckets to water crops by hand in the absence of large-scale irrigation systems in two southern provinces. "We were repeatedly confronted with the statement that we are in a drought, the most severe drought in 60 years," he told the Foreign Correspondents' Club of China, after getting back from an almost week-long visit to North Korea. "It's planting season now for the main crops - rice and cabbage and maize - and you can see in the entire country the planting has happened. But of course it is dry, and you don't know what's going to happen, whether these plants will survive the dry spell you have at the moment." North Korea's KCNA news agency said on Friday there had been hailstorms and heavy rain in some parts of the country in recent days but that most areas were suffering "a long spell" of drought….

2012 June 25. ‘Nature’s Masons’ Do Double Duty as Storytellers.  By Sean B. Carroll, New York Times.  Excerpt: GUBBIO, Italy — …Limestone is composed largely of crystallized calcium carbonate. Some of it comes from the skeletal remains of well-known creatures like corals, but much of the rest comes from less appreciated but truly remarkable organisms called foraminifera, or forams for short. Forams have been called “nature’s masons,” … these single-celled protists construct surprisingly complex, ornate and beautiful shells to protect their bodies. After forams die, their shells settle in ocean sediments…. While tiny relative to ourselves …, forams are extremely large for single-celled organisms, … largest forams can reach a few centimeters. ...Forams are a vital part of a “biological pump” that removes carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. When carbon dioxide dissolves in seawater, one reaction product is carbonate. In making their calcium carbonate shells, the large mass of so-called planktonic forams floating in the upper levels of the oceans sequester about one quarter of all carbonate produced in the oceans each year.
The increasing levels of carbon dioxide in our planet’s atmosphere, now at a greater level than at any time in the past 400,000 years, threaten to overwhelm this biological pump by inhibiting the formation of calcium carbonate shells. As more carbon dioxide dissolves in the ocean, the waters acidify, decreasing the concentration of carbonate and making it more difficult for these organisms to form calcium carbonate shells…. Read the full article: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/26/science/natures-masons-do-double-duty-as-earths-storytellers.html?_r=1&emc=eta1

2012 June 25. Duluth eyes rebuilding for a wetter climate. By Bill McAuliffe, StarTribune. Excerpt: One of the biggest tasks facing Duluth in the aftermath of last week's historic flash flooding will be repairing the city's 400-mile storm-water removal system. The northern Minnesota city's network of sewers, culverts, ditches and basins, in some places more than 100 years old, suffered "extensive damage all over the city," said Eric Shaffer, Duluth's chief engineer of utilities. But building and rebuilding a sewer system these days means making an educated and possibly expensive guess on a changing climate. Many communities are studying what steps they might take to accommodate increasing precipitation, but for Duluth, it will be a full-immersion process. "Duluth is maybe in the first wave of cities to adapt to climate change," said University of Minnesota Extension climatologist Mark Seeley. Climate scientists say increasing precipitation, particularly from intense thunderstorms, is a symptom of ongoing climate warming, because warm air holds more water vapor than cooler air.....

2012 June 20. Global sea-level rise could hit California hard AND Report: Calif. to get seas rising 6 inches by 2030. By David Perlman/Jeff Bernard, SFGate. Excerpt:  Global sea-level rise, induced by the warming climate, will hit California's coastline harder than the other West Coast states over the coming decades and on through the end of the century, according to a new report from the National Research Council. Oceans around the world are rising, but seas around California will rise even higher - by more than 3 feet before 2100, the report says. Tide gauges and satellites show that the rate of sea-level rise has increased steadily since 1900, and with each passing decade, storm surges and high waves will put low-lying regions like the Bay Area at heightened risk of dangerous flooding. AND The West Coast will see an ocean several inches higher in coming decades, with most of California expected to get sea levels a half foot higher by 2030, according to a report released Friday. Seaside cliffs will be cut back about 30 yards over the next 100 years, and sand dunes will be driven back even more, said Robert A. Dalrymple, a professor of civil engineering at Johns Hopkins University and chairman of the group that wrote the report. After about 50 years, coastal wetlands will eventually be overwhelmed without new sources of sand or room to move inland. That could be problematic in Northern California, though, since dams hold back about a third of the sand that once washed into the sea there from the Klamath River, the report noted…Sea levels rise for two reasons due to global warming. Warmer water expands, which can cause as many as 23 inches of sea level to rise by 2100, according to the Nobel Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Warmer temperatures also cause ice sheets in Greenland and west Antarctica to melt, adding another foot or more to sea levels by 2100, scientists said.....

2012 June 21. Colorado Fire Follows Pine Beetles' Tracks. By Nathaniel Massey and Climate Wire, Scientific American. Excerpt: Mountain pine beetle infestation killed the trees fueling the High Park fire, By Nathanael Massey and ClimateWire. Excerpt: It has been nearly two weeks since a tongue of lightning touched down in the foothills of the Colorado Rockies, sparking the biggest wildfire in Larimer County history and the most destructive -- with almost 200 buildings damaged to date -- in the state's memory. ...When pine beetles [link "pine beetles to http://www.ext.colostate.edu/pubs/insect/05528.html] take over a forest, fire is typically not far behind, said Cal Wettstein, incident commander with the Rocky Mountain division of the Beetle Incident Management Organization. ...Many entomologists point to the record warmth of the last 10 years as a cause. The beetle's life cycle is temperature-dependent. It is killed by frosts, but its life cycle is accelerated by warmth, and in some cases higher temperatures have been shown to allow the beetles to reproduce twice a year rather than once (ClimateWire, March 19). Add to those factors a dry winter and hot spring of the kind Colorado witnessed this year and last, and you have a perfect storm of conditions for a blaze on the scale and severity of the High Park fire, said Reghan Cloudman, public information officer for the Arapaho-Roosevelt National Forest....

2012 June 07. NASA Discovers Unprecedented Blooms of Ocean Plant Life. By J.D. Harrington and Maria-Jose Vinas, NASA. An article relevant to GSS Climate Change chapter 8. Excerpt: Scientists have made a biological discovery in Arctic Ocean waters as dramatic and unexpected as finding a rainforest in the middle of a desert. A NASA-sponsored expedition punched through three-foot thick sea ice to find waters richer in microscopic marine plants, essential to all sea life, than any other ocean region on Earth. The finding reveals a new consequence of the Arctic's warming climate and provides an important clue to understanding the impacts of a changing climate and environment on the Arctic Ocean and its ecology…The microscopic plants, called phytoplankton, are the base of the marine food chain. Phytoplankton were thought to grow in the Arctic Ocean only after sea ice had retreated for the summer. Scientists now think that the thinning Arctic ice is allowing sunlight to reach the waters under the sea ice, catalyzing the plant blooms where they had never been observed…

2012 June 07. Warming nears point of no return, scientists say. By David Perlman, SF Gate. Excerpt:  The Earth is reaching a "tipping point" in climate change that will lead to increasingly rapid and irreversible destruction of the global environment unless its forces are controlled by concerted international action, an international group of scientists warns. Unchecked population growth, the disappearance of critical plant and animal species, the over-exploitation of energy resources, and the rapidly warming climate are all combining to bring mounting pressure on the Earth's environmental health…scientists from five nations, led by UC Berkeley biologist Anthony Barnosky, report their analysis Thursday in the journal Nature….

2012 May 24. Butterfly Species Expands Range With Climate Change. By Sindya N. Bhanoo The NY Times. Excerpt: A butterfly species in England is expanding its range, thanks to climate change. “There was something unusual about the degree to which it was spreading its range,” said an author of the study, Jane K. Hill, a biologist at York. “It was turning up in places that were unexpected.” The study demonstrates that some species have unexpected responses to climate change, Dr. Hill said. For the butterflies, the response seems to be positive. Unfortunately, she added, they are also facing loss of habitat, and that, she said, “outweighs any potential benefits from climate change.”….

2012 May 13. Global warming threatens pine forests, forcing federal officials to shift strategy. By Juliet Eilperin, The Washington Post. Excerpt: The Forest Service…explains how federal researchers are working to curb a beetle epidemic in an effort to save high-elevation pine forests. Scientists know that global warming will reshape these forests, which provide crucial habitat and food for key species, curb soil erosion and slow melting snow destined for local water supplies. What they don’t yet understand is which trees are best poised to survive under these changed conditions and how they can help them adapt in the decades to come...

2012 Apr 5.  Climate Change Linked to Waterborne Diseases in Inuit Communities. By Ker Than, National Geographic News.  Excerpt: As global warming triggers heavier rainfall and faster snowmelt in the Arctic, Inuit communities in Canada are reporting more cases of illness attributed to pathogens that have washed into surface water and groundwater, according to a new study. The findings corroborate past research that suggests indigenous people worldwide are being disproportionately affected by climate change.... The experiences of the Inuit and other indigenous communities as they struggle to adapt to changing climate conditions could help guide humanity in the coming years when the effects of climate change are felt universally, scientists say....

2012 Apr16. Beetles’ Birth Explosion Puts Trees Under Stress. By Sindya Bhanoo, New York Times. Excerpt: Mountain pine beetles attack and kill weak pine trees, boring into bark to lay their eggs. They attack the trees in hordes, and their larvae feed off fungi in the trees. Now, the beetles are reproducing twice a year instead of once, and millions of trees are dying as a result. The beetle species is several million years old, and historically larvae grow to be adults in July or August every year. But it has been getting warmer earlier in the year, and larvae mature faster and emerge as early as May. These new beetles then immediately lay eggs, and a second generation of adult beetles emerges as early as July because summers are so warm, said Scott M. Ferrenberg, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Colorado at Boulder and an author of a study in the coming issue of The American Naturalist…. Read the full article: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/17/science/beetles-birth-explosion-puts-pine-trees-under-stress.html?ref=science

2012 Mar 22.  Rising sea levels imperil our state | By Ben Strauss, Miami Herald.  Excerpt:  Florida is in the crosshairs of climate change. Rising seas, a population crowded along the coast, porous bedrock, and the relatively common occurrence of tropical storms put more real estate and people at risk from storm surges aggravated by sea level rise in Florida, than any other state by far….
…It’s time we start preparing for higher seas and storms, if we want to avoid their worst effects. In South Florida, where the porous limestone makes building effective sea walls or levees almost impossible, the task is especially urgent....

2012 Mar-Apr. 2011's Billion-Dollar Disasters: Is Climate Change to Blame? | By Jeff Masters, weatherize. Excerpt: … at the beginning of 2011, Mother Nature made it abundantly clear that the gloves were off. …punishing snowstorms pounded the country, … shut down Chicago with more than 20 inches of snow and brought heavy snow to 22 states. …cost $1.8 billion,….  in April, a series of violent severe storms brought an astonishing eight billion-dollar disasters to the United States in a three-month period. The Plains and Southeast endured an epic onslaught of dangerous tornadoes that killed hundreds and caused tens of billions in damage. …Record rains …triggering billion-dollar floods on the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers. And after the floods, came the heat. …the summer of 2011 was the second hottest in U.S. history, just 0.1 degree below the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936….

2012 Mar 24. 2012 March 14.  Scientists use Thoreau's journal notes to track climate change.  By Alison Flood, The Guardian.  Excerpt:  Fittingly for a man seen as the first environmentalist, Henry David Thoreau, who described his isolated life in 1840s Massachusetts in the classic of American literature Walden, is now helping scientists pin down the impacts of climate change….
…He meticulously observed the first flowering dates for over 500 species of wildflowers in Concord, Massachusetts, between 1851 and 1858, recording them in a set of tables. When Richard Primack, a biology professor at Boston University, and fellow researcher Abraham Miller-Rushing discovered Thoreau's unpublished records, they immediately realised how useful they would be for pinning down the impact of the changing climate over the last century and a half….

2012 March 13.  Rising Sea Levels Seen as Threat to Coastal U.S.  By Justin Gillis, The NY Times.  Excerpt:  About 3.7 million Americans live within a few feet of high tide and risk being hit by more frequent coastal flooding in coming decades because of the sea level rise caused by global warming, according to new research….
The project on sea level rise led by Dr. Benjamin H. Strauss for the nonprofit organization Climate Central appears to be the most elaborate effort in decades to estimate the proportion of the national population at risk from the rising sea. The papers are scheduled for publication on Wednesday by the journal Environmental Research Letters. The work is based on the 2010 census and on improved estimates, compiled by federal agencies, of the land elevation near coastlines and of tidal levels throughout the country….

2012 Jan 26. New USDA climate zone map reflects northward warming trends. By Janice Lloyd, USA TODAY. Excerpt: A new government map gives gardeners in many parts of the nation a chance to turn over a new leaf for the first time in decades. …Long-awaited changes unveiled Wednesday in the U.S. Department of Agriculture's climate zone guide show northward warming trends, while also targeting a few colder areas in the mountains. "I think it will lead people to experiment with many plants they might not have otherwise," says Steve Carroll, director of public programs at the State Arboretum of Virginia in Boyce, Va. "Nurseries might stock differently."  See also article in Anchorage Daily News as well as article in Seattle Times: Britain ranks top risks posed by climate change.

2011 Dec 16. As Permafrost Thaws, Scientists Study the Risks.  By Justin Gillis, The NY Times.  Excerpt: …Experts have long known that northern lands were a storehouse of frozen carbon, locked up in the form of leaves, roots and other organic matter trapped in icy soil... But they have been stunned in recent years to realize just how much organic debris is there….
…If a substantial amount of the carbon should enter the atmosphere, it would intensify the planetary warming. An especially worrisome possibility is that a significant proportion will emerge not as carbon dioxide, the gas that usually forms when organic material breaks down, but as methane, produced when the breakdown occurs in lakes or wetlands. Methane is especially potent at trapping the sun’s heat, and the potential for large new methane emissions in the Arctic is one of the biggest wild cards in climate science….

2011 Dec 12. Climate change blamed for dead trees in Africa. By Sarah Yang, Media Relations, UC Berkeley News Center.  Excerpt: Trees are dying in  the Sahel, a region in Africa south of the Sahara Desert, and human-caused climate change is to blame, according to a new study led by a scientist at the University of California, Berkeley….
…The study, which is scheduled for publication Friday, Dec. 16, in the Journal of Arid Environments, was based upon climate change records, aerial photos dating back to 1954, recent satellite images and old-fashioned footwork that included counting and measuring over 1,500 trees in the field…
…They found that one in six trees died between 1954 and 2002. In addition, one in five tree species disappeared locally, and indigenous fruit and timber trees that require more moisture took the biggest hit….Their results indicate that climate change is shifting vegetation zones south toward moister areas.

2011 Dec 1. Santa Ana Wind Season May Be Stretched by Climate Change, By Craig Miller, KQED News. Excerpt: …this is high season for the notorious winds known ... as “Santa Anas,” and research suggests our changing climate may mean that season gets longer.
…“Generally a stationary high pressure system that sits over the Great Basin – Nevada and inland regions,” according to Norm Miller, who’s been modeling these winds on computers at Lawrence Berkeley National Lab for a few years now.
...As the air squeezes through the canyons, it speeds up — 50-60 mile-an-hour winds are not uncommon. And when air is compressed, it gets hotter.
...Normally, the season for Santa Anas would be starting to peak right about now, through December and January, and then start tailing off. But Miller has combined what we know about Santa Anas with established large-scale climate models, and found ... that given the way the Western climate is changing, high season for hot winds could be stretched out, with more Santa Anas overlapping with the dry season.
“And the danger would be that if we see it spread into the dry season longer, ... chances of fire are much greater,” says Miller.

2011 Nov 14.  UK trees' fruit ripening '18 days earlier.' By Mark Kinver, BBC News. Excerpt:  Britain's native trees are producing ripe fruit, on average, 18 days earlier than a decade ago, probably as a result of climatic shifts, a study reveals….
…Experts warn that one consequence could be that animals' food reserves would become depleted earlier in the winter….

2011 November 9.  Bering Sea storm: Has global warming made Alaska more vulnerable?  By Pete Spotts, Christian Science Monitor.  Excerpt: A powerful fall storm – the strongest since a mid-November storm in 1974 – is pounding Alaska's west coast with hurricane-force winds and a storm surge that in many places is expected to top eight feet above the high-tide line…. Concerns for flooding and coastal erosion are compounded by a lack of coastal sea ice, which typically extends from the shoreline out toward the open ocean and is building at this time of year.
…While the storm is weaker than the '74 event, it appears to fit into a long-term pattern with a global-warming connection
Dr. Jeff Masters notes that several studies over the past several years have documented an increase in the number of these intense wintry storms in the northern hemisphere over the past century, with a marked upward swing beginning in the mid-1960s, as the global climate has warmed….

2011 November 2.  Climate change effect on Delta detailed in new study.  By Mike Taugher, Contra Costa Times.  Excerpt:  California's water problems and the ecological pressure on the West Coast's largest estuary will intensify in a warming world, according to a first-of-its-kind scientific study.
San Francisco Bay and the Delta will get warmer, saltier and clearer if global warming continues over the next several decades. That will increase the risk of extinction for some kinds of fish and could help unwanted species, including a toxic algae, flourish…
…James Cloern, the study's lead author, said the researchers hoped the results would be used by those writing plans for the Delta's future. Two high-profile plans are under way. One is the Bay-Delta Conservation Plan being pursued by the Delta's biggest water users. It features a new aqueduct as its centerpiece. The other is the Delta Plan being written by a new state agency, the Delta Stewardship Council…. [Original report, "Projected Evolution of California's San Francisco Bay-Delta-River System in a Century of Climate Change," is published at PLoS One, the Public Library of Science's online journal. It can be found at www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0024465]

2011 November.  Six Climate Change-Related Events In the United States Accounted For About $14 Billion in Lost Lives and Health Costs. By Kim Knowlton et al., Health Affairs.  Abstract: The future health costs associated with predicted climate change–related events such as hurricanes, heat waves, and floods are projected to be enormous. This article estimates the health costs associated with six climate change–related events that struck the United States between 2000 and 2009. The six case studies came from categories of climate change–related events projected to worsen with continued global warming—ozone pollution, heat waves, hurricanes, infectious disease outbreaks, river flooding, and wildfires. We estimate that the health costs exceeded $14 billion, with 95 percent due to the value of lives lost prematurely. Actual health care costs were an estimated $740 million. This reflects more than 760,000 encounters with the health care system. Our analysis provides scientists and policy makers with a methodology to use in estimating future health costs related to climate change and highlights the growing need for public health preparedness.

2011 October 14.  Vital Details of Global Warming Are Eluding Forecasters.  By Richard A. Kerr. Excerpt: Climate researchers are quite comfortable with their projections for the world under a strengthening greenhouse, at least on the broadest scales. But ask researchers what's in store for the Seattle area, the Pacific Northwest, or even the western half of the United States, and they'll often demur. Switching from global models to models focusing on a single region creates a more detailed forecast, although it also creates more uncertainty. But help is on the way. Regional modelers are well into their first extensive comparison of global-regional model combinations to sort out the uncertainties....

2011 Oct 4. SpaceMath@NASA Problem 448: The Declining Arctic Ice Cap [PDF]. Students graph the change in Arctic ice surface area, and perform linear and quadratic regressions to model and forecast trends. See also: NASA Press Release: Arctic Sea Ice Continues Decline, Hits 2nd-Lowest Level - http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2011-ice-min.html

2011 August 19. Temps push animal, plant species to higher elevations. By Elizabeth Welse, USA Today. Excerpt: A study published in today's edition of the journal Science finds that, overall, species are moving to higher elevations at 36 feet per decade and higher latitudes at 10.5 miles per decade. The rate is two or three times faster than when it was last measured, in 2003. "The climate is shifting everything toward the north and higher altitudes," says Chris Thomas, senior author on the paper and a professor of conservation biology at the University of York in the United Kingdom. Animals, plants and insects closer to the equator or at lower elevations "are starting to find it too hot and are retreating upwards..."
"There is practically no basis to doubt the proposition that species are shifting as a function of rapidly changing climate," says Jeremy Kerr, a professor of biology at the University of Ottawa in Canada, who did not participate in the study.

2011 July 25. Toxic chemicals released by melting Arctic ice. CBC news. Excerpt: Climate change is boosting levels of banned pollutants such as PCBs and DDT in the atmosphere, Canadian, Chinese and Norwegian scientists have found. A "wide range" of persistent organic pollutants, or POPs, have been increasingly released into the Arctic atmosphere since the early 1990s, says the study led by Environment Canada scientist Jianmin Ma, "confirming that Arctic warming could undermine global efforts to reduce environmental and human exposure to these toxic chemicals." The study, published Sunday in Nature Climate Change, links higher summer air temperatures and lower sea ice cover to increasing levels of POPs. That suggests that POPs previously trapped in water, snow and ice could be released back into the air as the ice melts, allowing them to travel long distances through the environment.
…Jordi Dachs, a scientist at the Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research in Barcelona said the results mean that POPs could continue to negatively impact the environment and human health far longer than previously believed...

2011 May 9. In a Changing Antarctica, Some Penguins Thrive as Others Suffer. By Andy Isaacson, The NY Times. Excerpt: …Of the species that stand to be most affected by global warming, the most obvious are the ones that rely on ice to live. Adélie penguins are a bellwether of climate change, and at the northern fringe of Antarctica, in the Antarctic Peninsula, their colonies have collapsed as an intrusion of warmer seawater shortens the annual winter sea ice season….
…Climate change has created a paradise for some pack ice penguin colonies and a purgatory for others, but the long-term fate of all Adélie and emperor penguins seems sealed, as relentless warming eventually pulls their rug of sea ice out from under them….

2011 February 22. Owls change colour as climate warms. By Emma Brennand, BBC Earth News. Excerpt: Tawny owls turn brown to survive in warmer climates, according to scientists in Finland.
Feather colour is hereditary, with grey plumage dominant over brown. But the study, published in the journal Nature Communications, found that the number of brown owls was increasing....
...The results also suggest that a changing climate could, in some species, reduce the number and variety of characteristics that can be inherited....

2011 February 16.  Heavy Rains Linked to Humans.  By Justin Gillis, The NY Times.  Excerpt: "An increase in heavy precipitation that has afflicted many countries is at least partly a consequence of human influence on the atmosphere, climate scientists reported in a new study. 
In the first major paper of its kind, the researchers used elaborate computer programs that simulate the climate to analyze whether the rise in severe rainstorms, heavy snowfalls and similar events could be explained by natural variability in the atmosphere. They found that it could not, and that the increase made sense only when the computers factored in the effects of greenhouse gases released by human activities like the burning of fossil fuels....

2011 January 21.  California Plants Put A Wrinkle in Climate Change Plans.  By Richard Harris, NPR News.  Excerpt: As the globe warms up, many plants and animals are moving uphill to keep their cool. Conservationists are anticipating much more of this as they make plans to help natural systems adapt to a warming planet. But a new study in Science has found that plants in northern California are bucking this uphill trend in preference for wetter, lower areas....
...This adds some pretty big wrinkles to conservation plans. For example: It's not always a good assumption that protecting areas up slope from plants will help protect their future habitat as the climate changes....

2011 January 15.  Melting in Andes Reveals Remains and Wreckage.  By Simon Romero, The NY Times.  Excerpt:  ...The discovery of [airplane pilot Rafael Benjamin Pabon's] partially preserved remains was one of a growing number of finds pulled from the world’s glaciers and snow fields in recent years as warmer temperatures cause the ice and snow to melt, exposing their long-held secrets. The bodies that have emerged were mummified naturally, with extreme cold and dry air performing the work that resins and oils did for ancient Egyptians and other cultures....

2010 November 13. As Glaciers Melt, Science Seeks Data on Rising Seas. By Justin Gillis, The New York Times. Excerpt: Scientists long believed that the collapse of the gigantic ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica would take thousands of years, with sea level possibly rising as little as seven inches in this century, about the same amount as in the 20th century… But researchers have recently been startled to see big changes unfold in both Greenland and Antarctica.
As a result of recent calculations that take the changes into account, many scientists now say that sea level is likely to rise perhaps three feet by 2100 — an increase that, should it come to pass, would pose a threat to coastal regions the world over....
See also:
Slide Show: Reading Earth's Future in Glacial Ice
http://www.nytimes.com/slideshow/2010/11/13/world/20101114ICE.html?nl=todaysheadlines&emc=a22
Video: Tracking Greenland's Glaciers 
http://video.nytimes.com/video/2010/11/13/science/1248069290884/tracking-greenland-s-glaciers.html?nl=todaysheadlines&emc=a22
Interactive Graphic: Restless Ice
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2010/11/14/science/20101114-ice.html?nl=todaysheadlines&emc=a22
Graphic: Rising Seas, Vulnerable Areas
http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2010/11/14/science/earth/14ice_graphic.html?ref=earth&nl=todaysheadlines&emc=a22
Green Blog: A Nighttime Epiphany on Sea Level 
http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/13/a-nighttime-epiphany-on-sea-level/?nl=todaysheadlines&emc=a22

2010 October 8.  USDA Release 1022: Climate change may impact maple syrup production. Excerpt: Research by the USDA Forest Service and a study released by Cornell University demonstrate changes in climate have already had an impact on the iconic sugar maple trees of the Northeastern US and could eventually affect maple syrup production.
Research shows that climate change stressors may decrease the availability of maple syrup or shift production northward by the end of the next century because of direct changes in temperature, decreases in snowpack or increases in weather disturbances such as ice storms...
...While maple trees won't necessarily vanish from the landscape, there could be fewer trees that are more stressed, further reducing maple syrup availability...

2010 Sep 23. "This is what Global Warming looks like" video from NRDC Broadcast Videos. A short video about climate-related events from the past year, produced by the National Resources Defense Council.


2010 August 19. Drought Drives Decade-long Decline in Plant Growth. By Steve Cole, NASA. Excerpt: Global plant productivity that once was on the rise with warming temperatures and a lengthened growing season is now on the decline because of regional drought according to a new study of NASA satellite data. Plant productivity is a measure of the rate of the photosynthesis process that green plants use to convert solar energy, carbon dioxide and water to sugar, oxygen and eventually plant tissue... ...The shift, however, could impact food security, biofuels and the global carbon cycle...
..."This is a pretty serious warning that warmer temperatures are not going to endlessly improve plant growth," Running said...
..."This past decade’s net decline in terrestrial productivity illustrates that a complex interplay between temperature, rainfall, cloudiness, and carbon dioxide, probably in combination with other factors such as nutrients and land management, will determine future patterns and trends in productivity,"...
...Researchers want to continue monitoring these trends in the future because plant productivity is linked to shifting levels of greenhouse gas carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and stresses on plant growth that could challenge food production...
..."Even if the declining trend of the past decade does not continue, managing forests and crop lands for multiple benefits to include food production, biofuel harvest, and carbon storage may become exceedingly challenging in light of the possible impacts of such decadal-scale changes,"...

2010 August 7. Giant Ice Island Breaks Off Greenland. By Associated Press, San Francisco Chronicle. Excerpt: A giant ice island has broken off the Petermann Glacier in northern Greenland.
A University of Delaware researcher says the floating ice sheet covers 100 square miles - more than four times the size of New York's Manhattan Island. Andreas Muenchow, who is studying the nares Strait between Greenland and Canada, said the ice sheet broke off early Thursday. He says the new ice island was discovered by Trudy Wohlleben of the Canadian Ice Service.
Not since 1962 has such a large chunk of ice calved in the Arctic, but researchers have noticed cracks in recent months in the floating tongue of the glacier.

2010 July 28. Plankton decline across oceans as waters warm. By Richard Black, BBC News. Excerpt: The amount of phytoplankton - tiny marine plants - in the top layers of the oceans has declined markedly over the last century, research suggests.
Writing in the journal Nature, scientists say the decline appears to be linked to rising water temperatures.
The decline - about 1% per year - could be ecologically significant as plankton sit at the base of marine food chains.
…The decline is seen in most parts of the world, one marked exception being the Indian Ocean. There are also phytoplankton increases in coastal zones where fertiliser run-off from agricultural land is increasing nutrient supplies
…If the trend is real, it could also act to accelerate warming, the team noted… Photosynthesis by phytoplankton removes carbon dioxide from the air and produces oxygen.

2010 June 4. Climate Change Leading to Major Vegetation Shifts Around the World. By Sarah Yang, UC Berkeley News. Excerpt: BERKELEY -- Vegetation around the world is on the move, and climate change is the culprit, according to a new analysis of global vegetation shifts led by a University of California, Berkeley, ecologist in collaboration with researchers from the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service. 
…In a paper published today in the journal Global Ecology and Biogeography, researchers present evidence that over the past century, vegetation has been gradually moving toward the poles and up mountain slopes, where temperatures are cooler, as well as toward the equator, where rainfall is greater. 
…"This is the first global view of observed biome shifts due to climate change," said the study's lead author Patrick Gonzalez, a visiting scholar at the Center for Forestry at UC Berkeley's College of Natural Resources. "It's not just a case of one or two plant species moving to another area. To change the biome of an ecosystem, a whole suite of plants must change." 
…"Approximately one billion people now live in areas that are highly to very highly vulnerable to future vegetation shifts," said Gonzalez. "Ecosystems provide important services to people, so we must reduce the emissions that cause climate change, then adapt to major changes that might occur."

2010 April 7. New Study: Climate Change Threatening Glacier National Park Could Harm Montana's Future Tourism and Economy. National Resources Defense Council. Excerpt: WHITEFISH, MT. and DENVER, CO. --The last decade in Glacier National Park saw exactly double the temperature increase for the planet as a whole. The effects of this warming threaten Glacier National Park’s resources, from glaciers and snow-capped mountains to wildlife and forests, as well as the Montana jobs and tourism revenue the park generates, according to a new report from the Rocky Mountain Climate Organization (RMCO) and the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC).
Drawn by the park’s scenery, wildlife, and other resources, two million people a year visit Glacier, making it the 11th most visited national park in the U.S. Nearly three-quarters of the visitors are from out of state.... Spending by Glacier visitors may approach $1 billion annually and supports more than 4,000 Montana jobs. The report asks, why put at risk Glacier’s spectacular resources, as important as they are to Montana’s economy?
Lead report author Stephen Saunders, president of the Rocky Mountain Climate Organization, said: “Human disruption of the climate is the greatest threat ever to our national parks. If we don’t reduce heat-trapping pollutants and protect the resources of Glacier National Park, it will suffer from human-caused climate change. If we let climate change and its impacts get to an unacceptable point, the economy of Montana will suffer, too.”...

2010 March 12. Climate Change Threatens Migratory Birds, Report Says. By John M. Broder, NY Times. Excerpt: WASHINGTON — Changes in the global climate are imposing additional stress on hundreds of species of migratory birds in the United States that are already threatened by other environmental factors, according to a new Interior Department report.
The latest version of the department’s annual State of the Birds report shows that nearly a third of the nation’s 800 bird species are endangered, threatened or suffering from population decline.
For the first time, the report adds climate change to other factors threatening bird populations, including destruction of habitat, hunting, pesticides, invasive species and loss of wetlands....

2010 February 3. Black Carbon a Significant Factor in Melting of Himalayan Glaciers. By Julie Chao, LBL News. Excerpt: The fact that glaciers in the Himalayan mountains are thinning is not disputed. However, few researchers have attempted to rigorously examine and quantify the causes. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory scientist Surabi Menon set out to isolate the impacts of the most commonly blamed culprit—greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide—from other particles in the air that may be causing the melting. Menon and her collaborators found that airborne black carbon aerosols, or soot, from India is a major contributor to the decline in snow and ice cover on the glaciers.
“Our simulations showed greenhouse gases alone are not nearly enough to be responsible for the snow melt,” says Menon, a physicist and staff scientist in Berkeley Lab’s Environmental Energy Technologies Division. “Most of the change in snow and ice cover—about 90 percent—is from aerosols. Black carbon alone contributes at least 30 percent of this sum.”
...The findings are significant because they point to a simple way to make a swift impact on the snow melt. “Carbon dioxide stays in the atmosphere for 100 years, but black carbon doesn’t stay in the atmosphere for more than a few weeks, so the effects of controlling black carbon are much faster,” Menon says. “If you control black carbon now, you’re going to see an immediate effect.”...

2010 January 28. Less Water Vapor May Slow Warming Trends. By Sindya N. Bhanoo, NY Times. Excerpt: A decrease in water vapor concentrations in parts of the middle atmosphere has contributed to a slowing of Earth’s warming, researchers are reporting. The finding, they said, offers part of the explanation for a string of years with relatively stable global surface temperatures.
...“This doesn’t alter the fundamental conclusion that the world has warmed and that most of that warming has to do with greenhouse gas emissions caused by man,” said Susan Solomon, a climate scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the lead author of the report, which appears in the Jan. 29 issue of the journal Science.
Water vapor, a potent heat-trapping gas, absorbs sunlight and re-emits heat into Earth’s atmosphere. Its concentrations in the stratosphere, the second of three layers in the atmosphere, appear to have decreased in the last 10 years, according to the study.
This has slowed the rate of Earth’s warming by about 25 percent, Dr. Solomon said....

2009 December 6. In Face of Skeptics, Experts Affirm Climate Peril. By Andrew C. Revkin and John M. Broder, NY Times. Excerpt: ...as representatives of about 200 nations converge in Copenhagen on Monday to begin talks on a new international climate accord, they do so against a background of renewed attacks on the basic science of climate change. ...In recent days, an array of scientists and policy makers have said that nothing so far disclosed — the correspondence and documents include references by prominent climate scientists to deleting potentially embarrassing e-mail messages, keeping papers by competing scientists from publication and making adjustments in research data — undercuts decades of peer-reviewed science. ...Even some who remain skeptical about the extent or pace of global warming say that the premise underlying the Copenhagen talks is solid: that warming is to some extent driven by greenhouse gases spewing into the atmosphere from human activities like the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation....

2009 November. 5 Glaciers to See Before They're Gone. By Ethan Schowalter-hay. Except: Mountain and continental glaciers ebb and flow based on broad climatic cycles. In recent years, from New Zealand to Scandinavia, most have retreated at startling rates. Since 1980, for example, the world's alpine glaciers have receded by more than 36 feet. While the particular reasons for the widespread decline are not entirely clear, an increase in average global temperatures and variations in precipitation are likely causes.
Columbia Glacier - Alaska
Southeastern Alaska is famous for tidewater glaciers: big icefields spilling from mountains directly to the sea. While some continue to advance, the 2,000-square-kilometer Columbia Glacier, which sweeps from the Chugach Mountains into Prince William Sound, has been decreasing in size with great rapidity over the past several decades. After a long period of stability, it shrank from 41 miles long in 1980 to 33 in 2001....

2009 November 5. Climate Change, Nitrogen Loss Threaten Plant Life in Arid Desert Soils. NSF Release 09-218. Excerpt: ...As Earth's climate warms, arid soils lose more nitrogen, which could lead to deserts with even less plant life than they sustain today.
Available nitrogen is second only to water as the biggest constraint to biological activity in arid ecosystems, but ecologists have struggled to understand the balance of the input and output of nitrogen in deserts. For the first time, however, researchers have discovered a mechanism that balances the nitrogen budget in deserts: Higher temperatures cause nitrogen to escape as gas from desert soils.
...In the past, researchers focused on biological mechanisms in which soil microbes near the surface produce nitrogen gas that dissipates into the air, but ecologists Jed Sparks and Carmody ("Carrie") McCalley, both at Cornell University and co-authors of the paper, found that non-biological processes are playing a bigger role in nitrogen losses from soil to air.
"This is a way that nitrogen is lost from an ecosystem that people have never accounted for before," said Sparks.  "It allows us to finally understand the dynamics of nitrogen in arid systems."
...Further temperature increases and shifting precipitation patterns due to climate change may lead to more nitrogen losses in arid ecosystems, making their soils even more infertile and unable to support most plant life, according to McCalley. Although some climate models predict more summer rainfall for desert areas, the water, when combined with heat, would greatly increase nitrogen losses, she said.
"We're on a trajectory where plant life in arid ecosystems could cease to do well," said McCalley....

2009 November 2. Mt. Kilimanjaro Ice Cap Continues Rapid Retreat. By Sindya N. Bhanoo, NY Times. Excerpt: The ice atop Mount Kilimanjaro in Tanzania has continued to retreat rapidly, declining 26 percent since 2000, scientists say in a new report.
Yet the authors of the study, to be published Tuesday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, reached no consensus on whether the melting could be attributed mainly to humanity’s role in warming the global climate.
Eighty-five percent of the ice cover that was present in 1912 has vanished, the scientists said.
...The lead author of the study, Lonnie G. Thompson, a glaciologist at Ohio State University, has concluded that the melting of recent years is unique....
If his dating of the ice core layers is accurate, surface melting like that seen in recent years has not occurred over the last 11,700 years....

2009 July 14. Arctic glacier to lose Manhattan-sized 'tongue'. By Catherine Brahic, NewScientist. Excerpt: The biggest glacier in the Arctic is on the verge of losing a chunk of ice the size of Manhattan. A group of scientists and climate change activists who are closely monitoring the Petermann glacier's ice tongue believe the rapid flow of ice is in part due to warm ocean currents moving up along the coast of Greenland, fuelled by global warming.
... The team believes this will happen within weeks. Only yesterday, a 3-square-kilometre chunk broke away. There are now more than 10 cracks in the ice, some 500 metres wide. The researchers expect the ice tongue to break up within the coming weeks.
When this happens, an island of ice the size of Manhattan, spanning 100 km2 holding 5 billion tonnes of ice, will break free and drift out to sea.
As with all glaciers that terminate over water, big chunks of ice regularly break off the Petermann ice tongue, a process which is normally compensated for by the snow that falls on the upper reaches of the glacier. But the sheer amount of ice that could break away in a single event is concerning the scientists – five billion tonnes of ice is equivalent to nearly half of the glacier's usual annual flow.
The researchers are unsure what exactly is causing the break-up. A chunk of 1 million tonnes of ice broke off last year and there has been an acceleration in the flow of ice over the past few years. They think a number of factors are involved including warmer ocean currents that are melting the ice from below and warmer air temperatures that are melting it from above....

2009 July 7. NASA RELEASE: 09-155. New NASA Satellite Survey Reveals Dramatic Arctic Sea Ice Thinning. Excerpt: WASHINGTON -- Arctic sea ice thinned dramatically between the winters of 2004 and 2008, with thin seasonal ice replacing thick older ice as the dominant type for the first time on record. The new results, based on data from a NASA Earth-orbiting spacecraft, provide further evidence for the rapid, ongoing transformation of the Arctic's ice cover.
Scientists from NASA and the University of Washington in Seattle conducted the most comprehensive survey to date using observations from NASA's Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite, known as ICESat, to make the first basin-wide estimate of the thickness and volume of the Arctic Ocean's ice cover....
The Arctic ice cap grows each winter as the sun sets for several months and intense cold ensues. In the summer, wind and ocean currents cause some of the ice naturally to flow out of the Arctic, while much of it melts in place. But not all of the Arctic ice melts each summer; the thicker, older ice is more likely to survive. Seasonal sea ice usually reaches about 6 feet in thickness, while multi-year ice averages 9 feet.
Using ICESat measurements, scientists found that overall Arctic sea ice thinned about 7 inches a year, for a total of 2.2 feet over four winters. The total area covered by the thicker, older "multi-year" ice that has survived one or more summers shrank by 42 percent.
...In recent years, the amount of ice replaced in the winter has not been sufficient to offset summer ice losses. The result is more open water in summer, which then absorbs more heat, warming the ocean and further melting the ice. Between 2004 and 2008, multi-year ice cover shrank 595,000 square miles -- nearly the size of Alaska's land area....

2009 June 16. Government Study Warns of Climate Change Effects. By John M. Broder, The NY Times. Excerpt: WASHINGTON — The impact of a changing climate is already being felt across the United States, like shifting migration patterns of butterflies in the West and heavier downpours in the Midwest and East, according to a government study to be released on Tuesday.
Even if the nation takes significant steps to slow emissions of heat-trapping gases, the impact of global warming is expected to become more severe in coming years, the report says, affecting farms and forests, coastlines and floodplains, water and energy supplies, transportation and human health....
The study, overseen by the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, will be posted at www.globalchange.gov/usimpacts.
Some of the effects being seen today and cited in the report are familiar, like more powerful tropical storms and erosion of ocean coastlines caused by melting Arctic ice. The study also cites an increase in drought in the Southwest and more intense heat waves in the Northeast as a result of growing concentrations of carbon dioxide and other climate-altering gases in the atmosphere.
...“What we would want to have people take away is that climate change is happening now, and it’s actually beginning to affect our lives,” said Thomas R. Karl, director of the National Climatic Data Center at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and a principal author of the report. “It’s not just happening in the Arctic regions, but it’s beginning to show up in our own backyards.”...

2009 May 27. RELEASE 2009-10. Melting Greenland Ice Sheets May Threaten Northeast United States, Canada. NCAR. Excerpt: BOULDER--Melting of the Greenland ice sheet this century may drive more water than previously thought toward the already threatened coastlines of New York, Boston, Halifax, and other cities in the northeastern United States and in Canada, according to new research led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).
The study, which will be published Friday in Geophysical Research Letters, finds that if Greenland's ice melts at moderate to high rates, ocean circulation by 2100 may shift and cause sea levels off the northeast coast of North America to rise by about 12 to 20 inches (about 30 to 50 centimeters) more than in other coastal areas. The research builds on recent reports that have found that sea level rise associated with global warming could adversely affect North America, and its findings suggest that the situation is more threatening than previously believed.
"If the Greenland melt continues to accelerate, we could see significant
impacts this century on the northeast U.S. coast from the resulting sea level rise," says NCAR scientist Aixue Hu, the lead author. "Major northeastern cities are directly in the path of the greatest rise."
...The northeast coast of North America is especially vulnerable to the effects of Greenland ice melt because of the way the meridional overturning circulation acts like a conveyer belt transporting water through the Atlantic Ocean. The circulation carries warm Atlantic water from the tropics to the north, where it cools and descends to create a dense layer of cold water. As a result, sea level is currently about 28 inches (71 cm) lower in the North Atlantic than the North Pacific, which lacks such a dense layer. ...Unlike water in a bathtub, water in the oceans does not spread out evenly. Sea level can vary by several feet from one region to another, depending on such factors as ocean circulation and the extent to which water at lower depths is compressed....

2009 May 18. As Alaska Glaciers Melt, It's Land That's Rising. By CORNELIA DEAN, NY Times. Excerpt: Relieved of billions of tons of glacial weight, the land in Juneau is rising much as a cushion regains its shape after someone gets up from a couch....

2009 March 30. A Census Taker for Penguins in Argentina. A Conversation with Dee Boersma. By Claudia Dreifus, NY Times. Excerpt: P. Dee Boersma, a University of Washington conservation biologist, is the Jane Goodall of penguins. As director of the Wildlife Conservation Society’s Penguin Project, Dr. Boersma, 62, has spent the last quarter of a century studying the behaviors of some 40,000 Magellanic penguins, inhabitants of one stretch of beach in southern Argentina....
Q. WHAT DOES YOUR RESEARCH INVOLVE?
A. I’m a kind of census taker of the 200,000 breeding pairs of penguins at Punta Tombo. I track who is at home, who gets to mate, where the penguins go for the meals, their health, their behaviors.
...I’m interested in where they go. Through the tagging we’ve been able to show that in the last decade, the birds are swimming about 25 miles further in search of food. They’re having trouble finding enough fish to eat....
These penguins are now laying eggs on the average three days later in the season then they did a decade ago. That means that the chicks may leave for sea at more inopportune times, when fish may not be close to the colony. Many will not survive to come back and breed. The Punta Tombo colony has declined 22 percent since 1987. That’s a lot. This type of penguin is considered near-threatened. Of the 17 different penguin species, 12 are suffering rapid decreases in numbers.
Q. Why is this decline occurring among the Magellanic penguins?
A. Changes in the availability and abundance of prey. And we think that’s due to both climate change and exploitation of the penguins’ food sources by commercial fisheries....
Q. WHAT ARE THE POLICY IMPLICATIONS OF YOUR RESEARCH?
A. ...The big thing is that penguins are showing us that climate change has already happened. The birds are trying to adapt. But evolution is not fast enough to allow them to do that, over the long term....

2009 March 15. Northeast US to suffer most from future sea rise. By Seth Borenstein, The Huffington Post. Excerpt: WASHINGTON — The northeastern U.S. coast is likely to see the world's biggest sea level rise from man-made global warming, a new study predicts.
However much the oceans rise by the end of the century, add an extra 8 inches or so for New York, Boston and other spots along the coast from the mid-Atlantic to New England....
An extra 8 inches – on top of a possible 2 or 3 feet of sea rise globally by 2100 – is a big deal, especially when nor'easters and hurricanes hit, experts said.
...the oceans won't rise at the same rate everywhere, said study author Jianjun Yin of the Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies at Florida State University. It will be "greater and faster" for the Northeast, with Boston one of the worst hit among major cities, he said. So, if it's 3 feet, add another 8 inches for that region.
The explanation involves complicated ocean currents. Computer models forecast that as climate change continues, there will be a slowdown of the great ocean conveyor belt. That system moves heat energy in warm currents from the tropics to the North Atlantic and pushes the cooler, saltier water down, moving it farther south around Africa and into the Pacific. As the conveyor belt slows, so will the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic current. Those two fast-running currents have kept the Northeast's sea level unusually low because of a combination of physics and geography, Yin said.
Slow down the conveyor belt 33 to 43 percent as predicted by computer models, and the Northeast sea level rises faster, Yin said....

2009 March 10. Sea level rise could bust IPCC estimate. By Catherine Brahic, NewScientist. Excerpt: Sea level rises could bust official estimates – that's the first big message to come from the climate change congress that kicked off in Copenhagen, Denmark, today.
Researchers, including John Church of the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, presented evidence that Greenland and Antarctica are losing ice fast, contributing to the annual sea-level rise. Recent data shows that waters have been rising by 3 millimetres a year since 1993.
Church says this is above any of the rates forecast by the IPCC models. By 2100, sea levels could be 1 metre or more above current levels, he says. And it looks increasingly unlikely that the rise will be much less than 50 centimetres.
In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change forecast a rise of 18 cm to 59 cm by 2100. But the numbers came with a heavy caveat that often went unnoticed by the popular press.
Because modelling how the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets will react to rising temperatures is fiendishly complicated, the IPCC did not include either in its estimate. It's no small omission: the Greenland ice cap, the smaller and so far less stable of the two, holds enough water that if it all melted, it would raise sea levels by 6 metres on average across the globe....

2009 January 29. New data show much of Antarctica is warming more than previously thought. EurekAlert. Excerpt: Scientists studying climate change have long believed that while most of the rest of the globe has been getting steadily warmer, a large part of Antarctica – the East Antarctic Ice Sheet – has actually been getting colder.
But new research shows that for the last 50 years, much of Antarctica has been warming at a rate comparable to the rest of the world. In fact, the warming in West Antarctica is greater than the cooling in East Antarctica, meaning that on average the continent has gotten warmer, said Eric Steig, a University of Washington professor of Earth and space sciences and director of the Quaternary Research Center at the UW.
..."Simple explanations don't capture the complexity of climate," Steig said. "The thing you hear all the time is that Antarctica is cooling and that's not the case. If anything it's the reverse, but it's more complex than that. Antarctica isn't warming at the same rate everywhere, and while some areas have been cooling for a long time the evidence shows the continent as a whole is getting warmer."
A major reason most of Antarctica was thought to be cooling is because of a hole in the Earth's protective ozone layer that appears during the spring months in the Southern Hemisphere's polar region. Steig noted that it is well established that the ozone hole has contributed to cooling in East Antarctica.
"However, it seems to have been assumed that the ozone hole was affecting the entire continent when there wasn't any evidence to support that idea, or even any theory to support it," he said.
"In any case, efforts to repair the ozone layer eventually will begin taking effect and the hole could be eliminated by the middle of this century. If that happens, all of Antarctica could begin warming on a par with the rest of the world."...

 
[This was part of chapter 3
in previous edition.]


Archives of Past Articles for Chapter 8

Ecological Impacts of Climate Change
. Free booklet, with powerpoints on current effects of climate changes from the National Academy Press. Each example is of a specific species. The powerpoints are tailored for different parts of the country. You can choose the region you live in or all of them. You can get the booklet in hard copy or as a PDF file.

Climate Time Machine - NASA JPL. Visualizations of changes in ice melt,
sea level, CO2, and global temperatures.

Realclimate -- a commentary site on climate science by working climate scientists for the interested public and journalists. ... to provide a quick response to developing stories and provide the context sometimes missing in mainstream commentary. Discussion is restricted to scientific topics, not any political or economic implications of the science.

Blog: SCIAM OBSERVATIONS - GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE--Opinions, arguments and analyses from the editors of Scientific American

New maps of  potential U.S. coastal areas to be inundated by global warming--These maps correspond with a one meter rise in sea level -- the amount of sea level rise scientists predict will occur whether or not we cease emitting carbon today, on account of all the warming the earth has yet to do in order to reach equilibrium with the amount of C02 we've already put into the atmosphere.

Climate Central - Surging Seas (clickable map) - http://sealevel.climatecentral.org/

Climate Change Education.org

Climate Denial - Debunking unscientific climate denials: on YouTube do search for "Climate Denial Crock of the Week" See example

More denials of Climate Change, and answers, from Grist magazine.

Earth--The Operator's Manual
Segment 5: CO2 in the Ice Core Record