2013-10-09. By 2047, Coldest Years May Be Warmer Than Hottest in Past, Scientists Say.

posted Oct 10, 2013, 12:09 PM by Alan Gould

For GSS Climate Change chapter 8. Excerpt: ...Scientists from the University of Hawaii at Manoa calculated that by 2047, plus or minus five years, the average temperatures in each year will be hotter across most parts of the planet than they had been at those locations in any year between 1860 and 2005. ... Unprecedented climates will arrive even sooner in the tropics, Dr. Mora’s group predicts, putting increasing stress on human societies there, on the coral reefs that supply millions of people with fish, and on the world’s greatest forests. ...models show that unprecedented temperatures could be delayed by 20 to 25 years if there is a vigorous global effort to bring emissions under control. ...emissions cuts would buy critical time for nature and for human society to adapt, as well as for development of technologies that might help further reduce emissions. ...The Mora paper is a rarity: a class project that turned into a high-profile article in one of the world’s most prestigious scientific journals. Dr. Mora ...assigned a class of graduate students to analyze forecasts produced by 39 of the world’s foremost climate models. The models, whose results are publicly available, are operated by 21 research centers in 12 countries, and financed largely by governments.  Thousands of scientific papers have been published about the model results, but the students identified one area of analysis that was missing ... how the temperature changes in specific places might compare with historical norms. ... Many people perceive climate change to be most serious at the poles, and the largest absolute changes in temperature are already occurring in the Arctic and parts of Antarctica. But the Mora paper dovetails with previous research suggesting that the biggest risks to nature and to human society, at least in the near term, may actually be in the tropics.... http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/10/science/earth/by-2047-coldest-years-will-be-warmer-than-hottest-in-past.html. Justin Gillis, The New York Times.